Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
TRACKED WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING SW INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY
BE TOO LATE TO AID CONVECTION IN OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD GETTING OFF TO A LATE START BUT
THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO
100 DEGREES AT BASTROP AND MONROE LOUISIANA. MODELS ARE STILL ON
BOARD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
OVER OUR REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST
OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND
A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA WEDNESDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS TRIES TO MOVE SOME
ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT THE NAM...ECMWF
AND HIRES MODELS HOLD OFF PCPN UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER MCS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MODEL PARAMETERS
SUGGEST A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE GREATEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED. NAM MOS CAME IN CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV MOS BUT WENT CLOSER TO ITS
00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
SPUR ON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING THE STALLED BOUNDARY
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND/OR RAISING THE CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL MCS
DEVELOP SINKING INTO OUR AREA. WL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS BEFORE
MENTIONING IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EVOLUTION. WHILE OUR REGION REALLY NEEDS THE PRECIP...
UNFORTUNATELY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK UP THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WARMER AIR IN THE COLUMN WILL
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS AND ALLOW AFTERNOON MAXES TO REACH
BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S.

RAIN CHANCES DO LOOK TO RETURN BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS TROF
MOVES OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE MS VALLEY. COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH WHERE
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW./GRG/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STILL NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR NORTH/EAST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT OVERALL THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AT MEI...GTR...HBG AGAIN
TONIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 9-12Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...STARTING IN THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR GLH/GWO FROM 12-18Z. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  94  70  94 /  11  21  20  22
MERIDIAN      66  96  69  95 /  11  22  21  22
VICKSBURG     69  94  70  93 /  11  22  21  20
HATTIESBURG   70  96  72  95 /   8  11  13  16
NATCHEZ       71  94  71  93 /   6  11  13  17
GREENVILLE    73  94  71  94 /  12  29  29  26
GREENWOOD     71  94  70  94 /  12  30  33  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/GRG/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-152015-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047-053-059>061-152015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY
IS PLANNED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

MSZ065-066-142205-
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-
448 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COVINGTON AND WESTERN JONES COUNTIES AT
447 PM CDT. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL JONES AND EASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3156 8954 3176 8950 3162 8927 3145 8927
      3146 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 119DEG 1KT 3158 8941

BYB