Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS GETTING A
LATER START THAN YESTERDAY AND HAS BEEN CONFINED FOR THE MOST PART
TO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WHILE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WILL SHIFT EAST AND THE TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. FOR THURSDAY PWS WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF AND THERE WILL BE LESS LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN LOWER VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 26. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO OUR CWA FROM THE THE EAST HELPING TO
PRODUCE VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
FAIRLY DRY FOR OUR CWA BUT WL CARRY MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IN
THE SOUTH AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND AND TRIGGER
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR FRIDAY. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL LIKELY BE THE FEATURE AGAIN BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE WL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
APPEARS TO BE LOW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAVMOS WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. /22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A "DIRTY" RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE STOUTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND
MORE-PRONOUNCED HEAT SHIFTED WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX. WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT I WAS VERY RELUCTANT TO
ACCEPT THE IDEA OF A PATTERN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY HOLDING SWAY IN THE EXTENDED. TONIGHT I AM STILL A
LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DROP NOTIONS OF RETURNING DRYNESS AND EXTREME
HEAT TO MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT
AND OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUT PRESENTS PRETTY STRONG
ARGUMENTS THAT I CANNOT IGNORE WITH THE LATEST LONG TERM FORECAST.

THUS...20 POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS
IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE EASTERN THREE-QUARTERS TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT MAINLY IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY UPPER 90S MAINLY INCLUDED IN FAR WESTERN ZONES
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS. MEXMOS
(GFS-BASED) TEMPS WERE STILL RAISED AT LEAST A LITTLE IN MANY AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GFS MEAN TEMPS ARE
MORE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE EXTENDED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD IF
MODELS CAN BE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTPUTS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. MEXMOS POPS WERE NOT LOWERED AT ALL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IN
FACT RAISED SOME PERIODS TO KEEP MATCH EARLIER MENTIONED
EXPECTATIONS.

PULSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED MAY STILL BE VIGOROUS AT
TIMES CONSIDERING 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE
-10 CELSIUS...THUS CONSISTENTLY DELIVERING STEEPISH LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY DEEPER THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN MOST
AREAS...LOWERING MICROBURST POTENTIAL A LITTLE FROM THE RECENT
EXTREME VALUES...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL BY NO MEANS BE ZERO. WILL
NOT BE MENTIONING THIS RISK IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND AT THIS POINT. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING MEI AND HBG AT MID AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN VCTY OF GLH AND GTR AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY 04Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAINLY SOUTH FROM
10Z TO 13Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. EVEN LESS
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  94  68  94 /  19  14   6  14
MERIDIAN      65  94  65  94 /  11  15  12  23
VICKSBURG     67  94  67  93 /  19  15   5   8
HATTIESBURG   68  93  67  95 /  11  18   7  17
NATCHEZ       68  92  67  92 /  17  18   9   8
GREENVILLE    71  95  71  96 /  12  13   6   8
GREENWOOD     69  94  69  95 /  14  14   6  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/BB/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ042>066-072>074-091945-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
244 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60 MPH...QUARTER-SIZED HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM RAYVILLE
LOUISIANA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO MACON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW- LYING AREAS FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 9PM AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES
WITH A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>041-091945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
244 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2PM TO 8PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE THE STORMS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

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