Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS
BRINGING MOSTLY DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. A WEAK MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX THAT HAS WORKED ITS WAY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING TSTMS OVER SE
LA/SE MS...WHILE SW-NE ORIENTED RIBBONS OF GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE HISTORY ASSOC WITH THE MCV AND THE LATEST RUC/NAM/WRF
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP NWD TO
ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVNG...AND THAT
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO INTENSE HEATING...BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR GREATER COVERAGE. GIVEN STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DCAPE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE MICROBURSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH AS THE NOCTURNAL COOLING INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED MAV MOS LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS IT
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO DRY/COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS FITS
CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD AROUND THE EAST/SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...ULTIMATELY ENHANCING TSTM CHANCES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY AND INTO MID WEEK. GIVEN THE
PROPENSITY FOR COASTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...HAVE FOLLOWED WETTER MET GUIDANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTN.

AS FOR THE HEAT...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE 100-104
RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AFTN...A LITTLE SHORT
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT LOWS HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO
THE 60S IN SOME CASES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE AND MENTION THE HEAT INDICES IN THE HWO FOR NOW. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE PAST TEN
DAYS SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN. LATEST GFS...ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS BRING A 200-300MB TUTT LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO
NEAR THE LA COAST BY MID WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS DEVELOPS ON THE
S SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID SOUTH AS THE TUTT
MOVES EWD ALONG THE LA COAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SUITES WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 1.5-1.7
INCHES. THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP BACK DOWN THE RECORD BREAKING
AFTERNOON HEAT WITH A SCATTERING OF TSRA AS WELL. THE ECMWF HAS
ABANDONED THE LOOPING APPROACH FOR THE TUTT AS IT NOW EDGES IT TOWARD
THE NW FL PANHANDLE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO LOWER OUR RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS A NLY FLOW ALOFT RESUMES.

IN ANY CASE...THE ONGOING HOT AFTERNOONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WE CAN
GET A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS AT 850MB REMAIN LOCKED IN
FROM 20-22C INLAND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY. EXPECT OUR BEST POPS COMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENINGS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN
ISSUE. PWATS MAX OUT AT 1.9 INCHES THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BACKING
DOWN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. K INDEXES APPEAR TO PEAK AT 42-44 OVER OUR
SRN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY WITH ENHANCED SEA BREEZE AND PROJECTED CLOUD
COVER INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TO SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR MID WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
OF OUR CWFA. OUR NRN PORTIONS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE DRIEST LOCATIONS
BUT STILL WITH SMALL AFTERNOON POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEXES WILL PEAK FROM 98 TO 103. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY
GROUND CONDITIONS WHILE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
IN FACT...KEECH-BYRAM DROUGHT NUMBERS USED IN FORESTRY OPERATIONS
ALREADY IN THE 500-600 RANGE WHICH ARE PRETTY HIGH THIS EARLY IN THE
SUMMER./40/

&&

.AVIATION...

FEW TO SCT 6 TO 7 KFT CUMULUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FIRING UP AS 1830Z ACROSS MS/LA COASTS AS
WELL AS IN ALABAMA. I AM NOW CARRYING VCTS FOR KHBG AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY EDGE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN EASILY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AND DIME TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. CB TOPS WILL REACH 40 TO 50 KFT..ESPECIALLY
FARTHER SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES...CONVECTION WILL
BE HARD TO COME AND WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE...HOWEVER ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING TO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. GROUND FOG/MIST AND HAZE WILL REDUCE VIS DOWN TO MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AT MOST ALL SITES BY DAWN ON MONDAY. SITES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF KMEI DUE TO CONTINUED
HAZE./ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  97  72  97 /  12  10  10  24
MERIDIAN      69  97  68  97 /  13   9   5  12
VICKSBURG     67  96  69  96 /  12   8   9  19
HATTIESBURG   72  97  71  95 /  26  37   6  36
NATCHEZ       70  96  70  94 /  15  25   5  32
GREENVILLE    70  99  72  97 /  12  10   7  12
GREENWOOD     68  97  70  97 /  12   6   6  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
222 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

ISOLATED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. A
HOT AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND SEVERE MICRO-BURSTS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
STABILIZES.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICIES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF OUTDOORS FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 100-103
DEGREES. HOWEVER...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AND DROP INTO
THE UPPER 60S...PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT STRESS. A NEW HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

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