Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE IS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SE
ZONES. AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
UP THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 21-22Z
BASED ON HRRR MODEL. BASED ON RUC TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING FORECAST...AND THEN DRIED THINGS OUT. LOWER DEWPOINTS
ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT
A MUCH COOLER NIGHT THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

BEYOND TONIGHT...A MAJOR...RAPID PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE CONUS WILL
TAKE PLACE AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...AT LEAST.
A PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS...AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE ASSOCIATED CENTER OF A STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600 DM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY HOT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS...INCLUDING MS...FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. WARMING TREND
WILL START FRI...AND MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REACHING AN
INITIAL PEAK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS...THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. DEEP MIXING AND ONLY WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ECMWF GENERALLY
SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW NIGHTS TO
BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT WITH MINS IN THE 60S. OVERALL EXPECT THAT
MODELS WILL STRUGGLE WITH HOW MUCH MIXING AND DRYING WILL OCCUR DUE
TO THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
LAST FOUR WEEKS IN COMPARISON TO NORMAL. LONGER TERM MUCH OF THE
AREA IS 6 TO 14 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT 30 TO 60 PCT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LARGER DIURNAL RANGES THAN SHOWN IN THE MODELS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGS FOR MAXES AND LOWERED A FEW DEGS FOR
MINS...ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN MODELS
SHOW THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS. /GERARD/

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXIST ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGAING WINDS OF 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. KPIB...KHBG...KMEI...KNMM COULD EXPEREINCE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITONS IN VICNINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW VIS/CIGS.
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CLEAR SOUTHEAST MS THE EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITOONS WERE NOTED
WITH BKN TO SCT 3.5-5 KFT STRATOCUMULUS DECK PIVOTING AROUND FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR WILL BE MIXING IN ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS....PAIRED WITH COOLING AIRMASS AT SUNSET...WILL
AID IN DISSIPATION OF CLOUD DECK BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY./ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AG/JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>051-053>056-
059>063-272045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
341 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

MSZ052-057-058-064>066-072>074-272045-
LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
341 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND THUS ENDING ALL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TORNADO          2 N PORTLAND            33.27N 91.51W
05/25/2011  F2               ASHLEY             AR   NWS STORM SURVEY

            TORNADO MOVED TO 6 NE PORTLAND. 6.25 MILE LENGTH AND 0.2
            MILE MAX WIDTH. 10 POWER POLES SNAPPED...SEVERAL
            OVERTURNED IRRIGATION PIVOTS...MINOR DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
            ROOFS OF HOMES...DESTROYED CARPORT...TIN OFF NUMEROUS
            OUTBUILDINGS...NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED.

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

MSZ039-046-262115-
KEMPER MS-NOXUBEE MS-
347 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
45 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORTERVILLE AT
347
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NOXUBEE AND EASTERN KEMPER COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3294 8834 3289 8834 3283 8835 3282 8836
      3268 8837 3260 8851 3275 8864 3296 8834
      3295 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 233DEG 22KT 3273 8848

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

MSZ073-074-262205-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
421 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUMBERTON AT
421 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR AND SOUTHERN FORREST COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3101 8935 3101 8941 3099 8943 3099 8946
      3102 8951 3102 8954 3100 8955 3101 8965
      3103 8965 3121 8914 3097 8913 3092 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 250DEG 37KT 3096 8954

BYB

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