Severe Thunderstorm Warning 687, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1058 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

.UPDATE...

DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY OVERTAKING THE ARKLAMISS AND THE FORECAST IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
CURRENTLY EXCEEDS 1.7 INCHES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS UP TO AROUND
3000 J/KG. SO HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR NOW. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THUS FAR. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011/

INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE
DUE SFC HEATING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN A GENERAL SE DIRECTION. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 3-4 PM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS SOUTH AS
THE SFC FRONT MAKES A MOVE TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL EXIST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS AT
ANY TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT RISK.

AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD IS SEEING DENSE FOG AND LOOK FOR
THAT TO CONTINUE TO 8-9 AM. A DENSE FOG ADV IS IN EFFECT AND THAT
WILL REMAIN AS IS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON (AN LAST FOR QUITE A WHILE)
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE ARE WILL WARM TO 85-90. I DID
TWEAK DOWN HIGHS FOR HBG BASED OF CLOUDS/PRECIP POTENTIAL. TEMPS FOR
THE OTHER 3 PERIODS FOLLOW GFS GUID WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. HIGHS THU WILL BE A BIT WARM WITH 87-92 DEGREES EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY TO COOL
TOO OR BELOW THE AFTERNOON MIN DEWPT. WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR. BASED OFF TRENDS...THERE HAS BEEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. I DON'T SEE WHY
SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SORT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT.
/CME/

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE PICK UP AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW...FARTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING SOME DRIER AND A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
COMING WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A COOLER AND DRYER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL AVERAGE FROM 0.35 TO 0.50 INCH WITH 50S DEWPOINTS FOR FRIDAY
AND PART OF SATURDAY BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE 40S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S...EXCEPT MIDDLE 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50 FOR EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COOL MORNINGS WILL BE
UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS WE GO INTO
MONDAY WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WE GO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
PUT THE REGION ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING SOME PWAT RECOVERY FOR WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND .75 TO 1.3 INCHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE ARKLAMISS. LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
ENSEMBLES...MEX AND GMOS GUIDANCE...EXCEPT WENT CLOSE TO THE COOLER
RAW GFS GUIDANCE ON NIGHTLY LOWS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE W-NW BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE ON TAP FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 05Z-07Z AND CONTINUE TIL AROUND 15Z. /15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
538 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-291045-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
538 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-291045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
538 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH 9
AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE DURING THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

CME

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