Severe Thunderstorm Warning 590, NWS Jackson, MS

566 
WWUS54 KJAN 272323
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSC007-019-272334-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0590.000000T0000Z-110728T0000Z/
ATTALA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
623 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND
NORTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3334 8913 3319 8919 3320 8921 3317 8922
      3320 8941 3329 8946 3343 8946 3344 8945
      3343 8943 3344 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 110DEG 20KT 3333 8940

$$

OLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE OUR CHANCES OF RAINS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WELL AS POPS AND TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MEAN RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH REGION...WHILE THE ARKLAMISS WAS UNDER A WEAK AREA OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING EXTENDING SOUTH TO AROUND TOWARD HIGHWAY
84 GOING TO INTERSTATE 20 IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A WEAK DISSIPATING
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. AREA RADARS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS WAS
BEING ASSISTED BY SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
TO STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WITH SO MUCH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL LOOK
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS. WILL PUT IN
PRE-EVENING WORDING FOR THE ZONES. ALSO REDUCED POPS SOME IN THE
SOUTH FOR THE PRE-EVENING WORDING.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. OTHERWISE FOR THE PERIOD EXPECT
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THE
MODELS KEEP DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND FOR THURSDAY...BUT TRY TO
DRY POPS OUT ON FRIDAY SOME. THE EURO AND SREF MODELS KEEPS SOME
DECENT QPF COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING AROUND
2 INCHES FOR THE PERIOD...AM INCLINE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS
ON FRIDAY PER THE EURO AND SREF MODELS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS
THAT THE MEAN RIDGE CENTER WILL ROTATE TOWARD THE GULF COASTAL
REGION ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHY THE MODELS CUT DOWN POPS
SOME. THE NATIONAL AND LOCAL WRF MODELS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTH FOR THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HEAT
INDEXES WILL BE ON THE RISE SOME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MEAN
RIDGE CENTER PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE APPALACHIANS WITH
VALUES OF 105-108 DEGREES. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN USED A BLEND
OF ENSEMBLES...GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS HUMID AIRMASS LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S./17/

./PREVIOUS LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE/POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW ROUNDING THE HIGH AND
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR
WEST OF OUR CWA TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
AGAIN LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GREATEST POPS BEING CARRIED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST
SITES. SATURDAY BOTH THE HIGH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS OUR CWA. DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH PWS JUST BELOW TWO INCHES IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY. DUE TO INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER PWS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS BUT ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER OUR CWA. GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER POPS WOULD BE THE NORMAL RESULT BUT THE GFS AND TO A
WEAKER EXTENT...THE ECMWF...SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO
AND A QUARTER INCHES OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY
LIMIT INSOLATION BUT WL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
DURING THE PERIOD IN THE HWO AS FORECAST VALUES STILL EXCEED 105
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
HIGH LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HUMIDITY LEVELS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE MOST LIKELY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED.
SITES THAT OBSERVE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.  KJAN...KMEI...AND
KHBG HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.  FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.  HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
MORNINGS...TOWARDS DAY BREAK THURSDAY ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES DUE TO
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  94  75  95 /  28  44  31  36
MERIDIAN      74  93  73  96 /  28  35  27  37
VICKSBURG     74  94  75  97 /  25  49  38  37
HATTIESBURG   74  92  75  96 /  35  53  27  38
NATCHEZ       74  93  75  93 /  25  47  29  45
GREENVILLE    75  95  75  94 /  13  54  45  43
GREENWOOD     74  94  74  95 /  14  46  36  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/19/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
202 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ043-047>066-072>074-281915-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
202 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. WHERE THIS HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS...OR OCCURS REPEATEDLY...
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 105 IN MANY LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 75 PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM HEAT STRESS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>042-044>046-281915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
202 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF BOTH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 105 IN MANY LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 75 DEGREES...PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT STRESS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OVER THE UPCOMING
DAYS...A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSZ050-051-056-057-272025-
SMITH MS-SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-JASPER MS-
259 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED FROM 4 MILES EAST OF LITTLE ROCK TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PINEVILLE AT 257 PM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN JASPER...NEWTON...EASTERN SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN SMITH
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3257 8895 3191 8901 3201 8946 3255 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 092DEG 18KT 3252 8897 3206 8936

MRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSZ039-046-272230-
NOXUBEE MS-KEMPER MS-
416 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF PRAIRIE POINT AT 416 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN KEMPER AND NOXUBEE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3264 8838 3275 8882 3328 8882 3329 8843
      3325 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 111DEG 9KT 3317 8835

OLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
518 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSZ033-272335-
OKTIBBEHA MS-
518 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OKTOC AT 519 PM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 20
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8870 3329 8908 3356 8909 3356 8884
      3339 8868
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 106DEG 18KT 3331 8882

OLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSZ030-033-280005-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CLAY MS-
550 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER TIBBEE AT 551 PM CDT...MOVING
WEST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3352 8858 3350 8861 3351 8867 3348 8868
      3359 8901 3365 8904 3375 8904 3376 8894
      3382 8893 3382 8873 3380 8871 3369 8871
      3369 8857 3364 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 097DEG 19KT 3354 8866

OLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
558 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSZ032-272330-
CHOCTAW MS-
558 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACKERMAN AT 558 PM CDT...MOVING WEST AT
15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3319 8915 3320 8921 3316 8922 3318 8932
      3328 8931 3329 8935 3341 8929 3331 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 110DEG 14KT 3326 8923

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

MSZ047-272330-
WARREN MS-
600 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF YOUNGTON TO 19 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BOVINA AT 600 PM CDT. THE LINE WAS MOVING TO THE WEST
AROUND 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WARREN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3221 9114 3222 9100 3219 9100 3229 9098
      3232 9090 3237 9087 3235 9099 3245 9100
      3244 9101 3249 9097 3243 9096 3244 9086
      3258 9086 3262 9069 3253 9056 3215 9077
      3208 9094 3218 9105 3212 9106 3214 9117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 270DEG 0KT 3253 9043 3234 9058
          3211 9057

OLB