Severe Thunderstorm Warning 463, NWS Jackson, MS

613 
WWUS54 KJAN 160551
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

MSC087-160630-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0463.000000T0000Z-110616T0630Z/
LOWNDES MS-
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY...

AT 1250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR KOLOLA SPRINGS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COLUMBUS AFB...CALEDONIA...COLUMBUS AND STEENS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

THE HAIL BEING PRODUCED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY
DAMAGE CARS AND ROOFS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT OF DOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE
A STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 8829 3352 8847 3359 8849 3361 8847
      3362 8850 3366 8850 3368 8845 3368 8841
      3372 8834 3375 8831 3375 8825 3370 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 301DEG 16KT 3368 8843

$$

19

969 
WWUS54 KJAN 160606
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
106 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

MSC087-160630-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0463.000000T0000Z-110616T0630Z/
LOWNDES MS-
106 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY...

AT 105 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLUMBUS AFB MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CALEDONIA...COLUMBUS AND STEENS

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3346 8829 3352 8847 3359 8849 3361 8847
      3362 8850 3366 8850 3368 8845 3368 8841
      3372 8834 3375 8831 3375 8825 3370 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 299DEG 18KT 3361 8841

$$

19

833 
WWUS54 KJAN 160623
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
123 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

MSC087-160631-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0463.000000T0000Z-110616T0630Z/
LOWNDES MS-
123 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 130 AM CDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3346 8829 3352 8847 3359 8849 3361 8847
      3362 8850 3366 8850 3368 8845 3368 8841
      3372 8834 3375 8831 3375 8825 3370 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 299DEG 18KT 3357 8833

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1039 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.UPDATE...ASIDE FROM A RECENT SOLITARY STORM MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST GRENADA COUNTY...NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO
FAR THIS EVENING HAS REMAINED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY
SEEING A POTENT CLUSTER OF CELLS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AR THAT IS
BACKWARD-PROPAGATING...OR EFFECTIVELY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CWA. TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ARE TRYING TO PUSH INTO AL...BUT COULD CLIP
AT LEAST THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL SAG
TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT
THINKING IS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ENTIRELY NORTH OF I-20 AND BE
ISOLATED...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. WITH LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED THERE IS
LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT MEANS THE RISK IS NOT ZERO. FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT
THINKING...BUT WILL ALSO TWEAK THE HWO A BIT TO FURTHER DOWNPLAY THE
OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL HELP ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MOVE
TO THE ESE TODAY. PROBLEM WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR IS THAT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RATHER SUPPRESSED CU FIELD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND A LIMITED CU FIELD ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST HALF. THIS APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT
IS WEAKENING AND ONLY EXPECTED TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT
WHERE THE AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST
SHOWED VERTICAL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 30 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 3000J/KG...LI'S AROUND -10C AND PWS NEAR AN INCH AND A
HALF. THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING BUT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY GOING IN THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STALLED
NEAR OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. MODELS SHOW A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY COINCIDE WITH PRIME DAYTIME HEATING AND
HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GFS MOS POPS CAME IN TOO
LOW AND HAVE GONE ABOVE THEM...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS MOS TEMPS AS TE NAM APPEARED TOO WARM. MODELS CONTINUED TO POINT
AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. /22/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...HOT AFTERNOONS...WARM
NIGHTS... AND CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
MOST OF THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY
AFTERNOON STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH DAY...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIM THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STUBBORN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LATE NEXT
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS RIDGE WEAKENING JUST ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...IT COULD BRING SOME BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE CWA. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE A RISK TONIGHT AT
GLH/GWO/GTR/CBM/MEI/NMM MAINLY...ALTHOUGH VERY MINOR CHANCES WILL
ALSO EXIST FURTHER SOUTH. ANY STORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE
TURBULENCE AND VERY GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO MIST) AROUND LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUD DECKS STAYING ABOVE 3
KFT AND WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  95  72  94 /  13  16  10   5
MERIDIAN      68  96  70  95 /  24  16  18   5
VICKSBURG     72  94  72  94 /  11  16   8   6
HATTIESBURG   73  95  71  95 /  13  16  12   5
NATCHEZ       73  92  73  91 /   8  16   6   5
GREENVILLE    72  95  73  95 /  15  16  10  10
GREENWOOD     71  95  73  94 /  18  16  15  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50/22/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

MSZ026-028>033-038-039-046-170400-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-KEMPER-
1052 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRENADA MISSISSIPPI TO DE KALB MISSISSIPPI LINE.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>037-
040>045-047>066-072>074-170400-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1052 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

MSZ026-160335-
GRENADA MS-
1004 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF GORE SPRINGS AT 1004
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN GRENADA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3388 8964 3387 8951 3387 8950 3373 8950
      3368 8951 3368 8962 3387 8972 3388 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 331DEG 11KT 3384 8957

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

MSZ031-160620-
LOWNDES MS-
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOLOLA SPRINGS
AT 1222 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3351 8828 3359 8847 3361 8847 3362 8849
      3365 8850 3367 8849 3368 8841 3370 8839
      3370 8837 3373 8833 3375 8831 3374 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 299DEG 18KT 3381 8850

19