Severe Thunderstorm Warning 438, NWS Jackson, MS

635 
WWUS54 KJAN 102213
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

MSC035-067-102230-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-110610T2230Z/
JONES MS-FORREST MS-
513 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORREST AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...

AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
OVETT MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ELLISVILLE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WARNED AREA
BY 520 PM. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 8927 3166 8893 3144 8892 3143 8893
      3143 8912 3140 8913 3139 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 061DEG 6KT 3152 8899

$$

MRM

970 
WWUS54 KJAN 102219
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

MSC035-067-102229-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-110610T2230Z/
JONES MS-FORREST MS-
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORREST
AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3154 8927 3166 8893 3144 8892 3143 8893
      3143 8912 3140 8913 3139 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 061DEG 6KT 3152 8900

$$


17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...THE HEAT IS RETURNING TO THE REGION...

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE IS DECREASING
RAPIDLY WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET. STILL LOOKING FOR THE AREA TO
BE RAIN FREE BY 10 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS HAD A LATER START TODAY...BUT THERE
ARE SOME CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL WHICH ARE
MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH TOWERING CU ACROSS THE
E-CENTRAL/SE PORTION OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. CURRENT
POP FORECAST HANDLES THIS WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY GOING UNTIL 8-9
PM. SAME THINKING GOES FOR THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH LAPSE RATE OUT THERE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH A COUPLE SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALSO GOING AWAY
BY 10 PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND GUID
WAS PRETTY GOOD. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO LOWER A SITE OR TWO BASED OFF
PERSISTENCE.

SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE ISOLATED AND WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO FIRE AND MAINLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SE/S PORTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN EXIST
AND LIKE TODAY...A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLE SVR STORM COULD OCCUR. SFC
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MORE INVERTED V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

FOR SUN-WED...THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING AND HOTTER. BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILD A BIT TO OUR WEST
AND PLACE US ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS RIDGE
WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED/STRONG AS LAST WEEK...BUT WILL SERVE TO
HEAT THINGS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
95-98...IF NOT A TAD WARMER IF THINGS SET UP JUST RIGHT. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND THAT
USUALLY LEADS TO 95-100 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...TWEAKED GUID UP A
BIT...BUT DID NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. ON THAT NOTE...THE SUN-WED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A BIT ACTIVE
IN THE CONVECTIVE DEPARTMENT. AT THIS TIME...POPS ARE ONLY RUNNING
20-30%...BUT WITH ANY STORM...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SVR
WEATHER. THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW TYPICALLY SUPPORTS MORE ACTIVE
SUMMER TYPE STORMS AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP.
ADDITIONALLY...GUID IS INDICATING A WEAK(BUT PERSISTENT) SFC TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SERVE TO
PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND USUALLY RESULTS IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THE COMBINATION OF UPPER 90S TEMPS...STEEP LAPSE RATES...SBCAPE 3000
J/KG AND POTENTIALLY SOME MID LEVEL FLOW >20KTS...WILL LEAD TO SVR
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES IT
A TOUGH FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN NO STORMS
AND SVR STORMS. EITHER WAY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE WILL
BEGIN TO MENTION THIS RISK FOR AT LEAST ISO SVR STORMS SUN-WED IN
THE HWO.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING TOWARD DAY BREAK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/19/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
112000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
246 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS DURING
THESE TIMES WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19