Severe Thunderstorm Warning 423, NWS Jackson, MS

861 
WWUS54 KJAN 080010
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAC067-123-080030-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0423.000000T0000Z-110608T0030Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
710 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL WEST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GOODWILL MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES
AND BONITA

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3301 9147 3275 9148 3275 9155 3269 9159
      3274 9170 3301 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 174DEG 9KT 3286 9162

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A SWIRL AROUND AN MCV MOVING WEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS COMBINING
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRIME DAYTIME HEATING TO SET
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THEY TRACK WEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AT HATTIESBURG
AND JACKSON THAT WAS HELPING FUEL THE CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL POINTS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS HAVING THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED IN THE NORTH.
LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLISTS SHOWED FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE STORMS TRAIN SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A COL JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA AND A WEAKENING OF ITS GRIP ON OUR CWA. THE TUTT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING CARRIED IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIGHT AGAIN SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME IN
CLOSE WITH HIGHS 93-95F AT MOST SITES. COME THURSDAY WL HAVE A
WEAKENED RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CWA WITH THE TUTT AXIS IN THE GULF
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
NOSE ACROSS THE GULF STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST AND LIMIT
DEEP MOISTURE TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE CAME IN A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. AM ANTICIPATING LESS CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE BETTER
HEATING THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPOSITE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIDGING WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATE FRIDAY AND ALSO
SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING (MAINLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST)WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE RESULT OF THESE GOINGS ON ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONFINE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HEAT BACK UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO SOME
SPORADIC 100 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE IS NOT GOING NEAR THAT HOT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE 100S YET...BUT I DID RAISE HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEXMOS FORECAST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DID NOT LOOK BAD CONSIDERING ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT AGAIN OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
NIGHTTIME COOLING. DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE COULD END UP WITH
CONDITIONS ON PAR WITH THE RECENT HEAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AND WILL NOT MENTION RETURN
OF HEAT IN THE HWO AT THIS JUNCTURE.

MODEL CONSENSUS DOES GIVE SOME HOPE OF UPPER RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED
FAR ENOUGH WEST IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW BOUNDARIES
(AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION) TO EFFECTIVELY "BACK-DOOR" INTO THE
ARKLAMISS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL WEATHER
REGIME WOULD DEFINITELY CUT THE HEAT BACK A LITTLE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY RESULT IN MUCH BETTER OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...I DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TAKING
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT PERSISTENCE INTO ACCOUNT.
FOR NOW I HAVE TAKEN THE TACT OF NOT RAISING GUIDANCE TEMPS TOO
MUCH (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS) AFTER SUNDAY AND INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY (WHILE VIGOROUSLY CROSSING
FINGERS). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TRACKING CONVECTION
AND ISSUING UPDATES AHEAD OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR TAF SITES.
HOT TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN RESULTING IN
PARTICULARLY GUSTY STORMS...KMEI RECENTLY HAD A GUST TO 42 KT WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN LOOKING CONVECTION FROM A RADAR PERSPECTIVE. LOOKS
AS IF CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT KMEI/KHBG BUT WILL CARRY FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO AT KJAN. CONVECTION IS QUITE ISOLATED IN HWY 82 CORRIDOR
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITES FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE
CONVECTION ISSUES WILL BE DECREASING THE WIDESPREAD CI SHIELD ACROSS
THE S...AND THEN ANY LATE NIGHT BR/HZ. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOWER
LAYERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST SO WILL NOT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE YET
ON VSBYS BUT DID LOWER KHBG TO MVFR GIVEN HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN TAFS FOR WED BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL CLOSELY.               /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  93  69  94 /  29  35  14  15
MERIDIAN      66  94  65  94 /  28  25  11  11
VICKSBURG     68  94  69  94 /  31  29  19  16
HATTIESBURG   70  94  68  94 /  30  36  16  14
NATCHEZ       68  93  69  92 /  36  29  17  16
GREENVILLE    70  96  70  96 /  16  20  11  16
GREENWOOD     68  95  69  95 /  12  19  11  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/BB/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-082015-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO HALF-
DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUITMAN TO JACKSON TO
BASTROP LINE BETWEEN THROUGH 10PM. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CAUSING ROADWAYS TO BE
VERY SLICK WITH PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-082015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF
50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE-20 CORRIDOR.
TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE INCH IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME VERY SLICK ONCE WET AS LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO REMOVE EXCESS OIL AND
SEDIMENTS ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSZ043-044-049-050-072340-
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-
609 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF FARMHAVEN AT 609 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LEAKE...EASTERN MADISON...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3256 9008 3277 8997 3264 8970 3248 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 114DEG 7KT 3260 8984

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE FAYETTE            31.68N 91.03W
06/07/2011                   JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN OFF HWY 28.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E HAMBURG             31.58N 90.96W
06/07/2011                   FRANKLIN           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW POWER LINES DOWN ALONG MCNAIR RD.

0357 PM     HAIL             1 W KIRBY               31.51N 91.00W
06/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

ARZ074-080000-
ASHLEY AR-
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSSETT AT 632
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3328 9204 3329 9203 3329 9200 3330 9200
      3331 9199 3332 9179 3303 9181 3302 9203
      3325 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 179DEG 10KT 3311 9192

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
633 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE RUTH              31.39N 90.29W
06/07/2011                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES WERE DOWN

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAZ007-080015-
MOREHOUSE LA-
643 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF JONES AT 644 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 9177 3299 9150 3289 9150 3288 9153
      3286 9156 3280 9158 3279 9160 3276 9158
      3273 9162 3270 9162 3269 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 174DEG 9KT 3279 9161

JA