Severe Thunderstorm Warning 371, NWS Jackson, MS

041 
WWUS54 KJAN 030015
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

LAC025-030045-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0371.000000T0000Z-110603T0045Z/
CATAHOULA LA-
715 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CATAHOULA PARISH...

AT 715 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCHIE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ARCHIE BY 725 PM CDT...
  WALTERS BY 730 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9187 3146 9190 3147 9201 3168 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 114DEG 14KT 3154 9194

$$

CME

740 
WWUS54 KJAN 030025
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

LAC025-030035-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0371.000000T0000Z-110603T0045Z/
CATAHOULA LA-
725 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CATAHOULA PARISH
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3161 9187 3146 9190 3147 9201 3168 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 114DEG 14KT 3156 9198

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLY SUMMER HEAT REALLY DOES NOT LOOK TO
RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN PEAKING AT
RECORD LEVELS AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PEAK NEAR RECORD LEVELS
(DEPENDING SOMEWHAT ON THE VARIANCE OF DAY-TO-DAY RECORDS) THROUGH
THIS TIME. MIXING OF SOUPY SKIN LAYER AIR HAS NOT BEEN AS PREVALENT
TODAY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FLOODED AREAS NEAR THE MS RIVER) IN
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN SPORADIC HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. WE EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO THE CASE TOMORROW. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 70 AND 75
DEGREES AT MOST SPOTS...MEANING THE OFFICIAL WIDESPREAD MEETING OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS RATHER MARGINAL. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
VERY ABNORMAL LEVEL OF EARLY HEAT AND ASSOCIATED BODY STRESS
INVOLVED WITH THE ADJUSTMENT...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THIS HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND CONSIDERING PERSISTENT NATURE OF UPPER HEAT RIDGE.

ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL DETERMINE ULTIMATE LEVEL OF HEAT
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. PREVIOUS FORECASTS JUDGED THIS
WEEKEND INTO PERHAPS MONDAY TO HAVE BEST RELATIVE CHANCES (20 TO 30
PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A WHILE (AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONES). HOWEVER...NOW MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING EFFECT
OF UPPER LEVEL GULF LOW PASSING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL SOMEWHAT SUGGEST A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY
ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. GIVEN HEAT AND MOISTURE
CONTAINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FUEL AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENINGS STARTING TODAY...BUT SOME SOURCE OF LIFT IS
NEEDED TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING INDUCED BY RIDGE ALOFT.
SUCH LIFT COULD MANIFEST NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IN MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY
NOTHING TO HANG HATS ON (10 TO 20 PERCENT) SO THOSE DESIRING WETNESS
SHOULD CROSS FINGERS. BUT ALSO SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THE FACT
THAT MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS HOT ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE HIGH AND THUS ANY STORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011/

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GULF...WHICH WILL AFFECT
BASICALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION WITH SOME CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE AFFECTS OF THE STRONG MEAN
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE EURO BRINGS THE UPPER LOW BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT OUT OF OUR
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. IF THIS SHOULD COME TO BE...WE WILL HAVE
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...DCAPES...K-INDEXES OF AROUND 40...INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS..AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.8 TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. IF
THESE STORMS MATERIALIZE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME SEVERE WINDS. THIS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND HAVE SOME LIMITED EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON
HIGHS. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SINCE WE HAVE SUCH
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH..SINCE MODELS SEEM TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN ON THESE UPPER
FEATURES. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW ISOLATED SIDE WITH THE
MEAN RIDGE KEEPING PRECIP COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM. SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HEAT INDEXES WILL RANGE FROM 98 TO 105. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...MEX AND MOS GUIDANCE.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MEX MOS FOR LOWS. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW HIGH BASED CU AROUND 6500FT AND HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE AREA. THE CU WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BUT THE THIN CIRRUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST SITES BY 10Z. A FEW
PATCHES WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FRIDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
MUCH OF THE TIME. /22/

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 3:
GREENVILLE....100
GREENWOOD......96
JACKSON.......102
VICKSBURG......96
MERIDIAN.......99
HATTIESBURG....96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72 100  73  99 /  12   6   6  13
MERIDIAN      71  99  71  99 /  13  10  10  17
VICKSBURG     71  99  71  98 /  11   5   5  12
HATTIESBURG   74  99  74  98 /   6  14  14  23
NATCHEZ       71  96  72  96 /  11  11  11  21
GREENVILLE    73  98  73  99 /   6   4   4   7
GREENWOOD     72  98  73  98 /   7   4   4   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

50/22/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
040000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
658 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEXES AROUND 105 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
EARLY SUMMER HEAT STRESS ON THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HOT WEATHER. USE
COMMON SENSE...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND AVOID PROLONGED OUTDOOR
EXPOSURE DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
518 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

MSZ059-022250-
JEFFERSON MS-
518 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHURCH HILL AT 518 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3164 9124 3170 9129 3177 9123 3173 9114
      3164 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 121DEG 15KT 3170 9121

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
645 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

LAZ024-026-030005-
CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-
645 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYNA AT 645 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL CONCORDIA AND CENTRAL CATAHOULA PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3141 9199 3161 9193 3154 9171 3138 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 103DEG 11KT 3147 9177

CME