Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Advisories in 2011

River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Jackson, MS

March 1, 2011Chicot County, Arkansas; East Carroll Parish, Louisiana; Issaquena County, Washington County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood advisory at Mar 1, 2011, 4:50 PM CST for Chicot County, Arkansas; East Carroll Parish, Louisiana; Issaquena County, Washington County, Mississippi. It was in force for 6 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2011, 4:50 PM CST (22:50 UTC)
Expired: Mar 7, 2011, 6:00 AM CST
In force: 6 days
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS

Counties Chicot County, AR, East Carroll Parish, LA, Issaquena County, MS, Washington County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Mississippi River near Greenville (GEEM6).

Action stage: 36 ft
Minor stage: 48 ft
Moderate stage: 52 ft
Major stage: 57 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07265455, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

943 
WGUS84 KJAN 012250
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 
450 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

 
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
ADVISORY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

  MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
  BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST 
  CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
  CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES 
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND 
  WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES 

SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON THE 24TH PRODUCED 
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF 
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS PAST WEEKEND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL 
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS 
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN 
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER 
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND 
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET ON THE 6TH OF MARCH. 
THIS IS 9 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. 

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK IN MARCH. 
CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

THIS COMING WEEKEND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL COULD ONCE AGAIN BE 
HEAVY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-030450-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.110301T2250Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
450 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35.0 FEET SUNDAY MARCH 13TH.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY   37  23.8 TUE 04 PM  25.0  26.6  27.9  35.0 SUN 3/13

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-030450-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.110301T2250Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
450 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 34.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET MONDAY MARCH 14TH.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
  UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 42.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE      48  34.2 TUE 04 PM  35.4  37.1  38.6  46.5 MON 3/14

$$

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-030450-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.110301T2250Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
450 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET TUESDAY MARCH 15TH.
* IMPACT...AT 41.0 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT 
  THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
  BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE 
  VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE 
  COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM, 
  AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA 
  NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG       43  26.3 TUE 04 PM  26.9  28.4  29.8  40.5 TUE 3/15P

$$

LAC029-MSC001-157-030450-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.110301T2250Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
450 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET THURSDAY MARCH 17TH.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD 
  GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT 
  ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED 
  ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE 
  AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ.  ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
  IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
  AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED 
  UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ         48  31.3 TUE 04 PM  32.7  34.2  35.5 47.5 THU  3/17

$$

6 follow-up statements

936 
WGUS84 KJAN 021716
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 
1116 AM CST WED MAR 2 2011

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

   *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
   BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

   *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST 
    CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

   *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
    CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES 

   *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND 
    WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES 

 
SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON THE 24TH PRODUCED 
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF 
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS PAST WEEKEND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL 
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS 
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN 
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER 
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND 
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET ON THE 6TH OF MARCH. 
THIS IS 9 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. 

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK IN MARCH. 
CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

THIS COMING WEEKEND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL COULD ONCE AGAIN BE 
HEAVY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

UPDATED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING.

ARC017-041-MSC011-151-032316-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1116 AM CST WED MAR 2 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35.0 FEET SUNDAY MORNING...MARCH
             13TH.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST DAY   TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY   37  25.0 WED 10 AM  26.5  28.0  29.4  35.0 3/13 MORNING

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-032315-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1116 AM CST WED MAR 2 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET MONDAY MORNING...MARCH
             14TH.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
  UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 42.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE      48  35.5 WED 10 AM  37.0  38.6  40.1  46.5 3/14 MORNING

$$

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-032315-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1116 AM CST WED MAR 2 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...MARCH
             15TH.
* IMPACT...AT 41.0 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT 
  THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
  BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE 
  VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE 
  COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM, 
  AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA 
  NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG       43  27.8 WED 10 AM  28.9  30.2  31.3  40.5 3/15 AFTERNOON

$$

LAC029-MSC001-157-032315-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1116 AM CST WED MAR 2 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 33.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET THURSDAY...MARCH 17TH.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD 
  GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT 
  ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED 
  ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE 
  AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ.  ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
  IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
  AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED 
  UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ         48  33.0 WED 10 AM  34.7  36.1  37.0 47.5  3/17

$$

142
WGUS84 KJAN 031723
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1123 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

*MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES

*MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST
CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES

*MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES

*MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES

SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FEBRUARY 24TH PRODUCED
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL THIS PAST WEEKEND
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET ON THE 6TH OF MARCH.
THIS IS 9 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL AT LEAST THE SECOND TO THIRD WEEK
IN MARCH. CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE...WITH NATCHEZ
BEING VERY CLOSE WITH AN EXPECTED CREST NEAR 47.5 FEET. FLOOD STAGE
AT NATCHEZ IS 48 FEET.

THIS COMING WEEKEND...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RAINFALL COULD ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

UPDATED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING.

ARC017-041-MSC011-151-042323-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1123 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35.0 FEET SUNDAY...MARCH
13TH.

FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN CREST DAY TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY 37 26.2 THU 10 AM 27.6 28.8 30.0 35.0 3/13 MORNING

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-042323-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1123 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET MONDAY...MARCH 14TH.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 42.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.

FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN CREST DAY TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE 48 36.8 THU 10 AM 38.2 39.3 40.7 46.5 3/14 MORNING

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-042323-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1123 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET TUESDAY...MARCH 15TH.
* IMPACT...AT 41.0 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT
THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE
VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE
COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM,
AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA
NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN CREST DAY TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG 43 29.4 THU 10 AM 30.5 31.6 32.6 40.5 3/15 EVENING

LAC029-MSC001-157-042323-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1123 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 34.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET THURSDAY...MARCH 17TH.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD
GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT
ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED
ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE
AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ. ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT
PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED
UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.

FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN CREST DAY TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ 48 34.8 THU 10 AM 36.2 37.4 38.2 47.5 3/17

ALLEN/POPE

463 
WGUS84 KJAN 041829
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011


...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
   BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST 
   CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
 
  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
   CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND 
   WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES

SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FEBRUARY 24TH PRODUCED 
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF 
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEKEND 
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS 
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN 
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER 
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND 
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET WHICH IS 9 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LOWER CRESTS ON THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS NECESSITATED MOVING THE CREST OUT FURTHER
IN TIME UNTIL MARCH 11TH BUT KEEPING THE CREST THE SAME AS PRIOR DAYS.
THIS IS A LITTLE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE ALONG THE LOWER RIVER. 

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL THE LAST PORTION OF THE THIRD
WEEK AND INTO THE FOURTH WEEK OF MARCH. CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...WITH NATCHEZ BEING VERY CLOSE WITH AN EXPECTED
CREST NEAR 47.5 FEET. FLOOD STAGE AT NATCHEZ IS 48 FEET.

RAINFALL HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FORECASTED 
CRESTS TO BE RAISED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
STAY ADIVSED OF CHANGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

AN UPDATED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING.


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-060028-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* AT 11:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35.0 FEET ON FRIDAY 
  MARCH 18TH.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SAT   SUN   MON CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY   37  27.3 FRI 11 AM  27.7  28.2  28.7  35.0 FRI 3/18A

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-060028-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* AT 11:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET ON SATURDAY MARCH 19TH.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
  UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 42.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SAT   SUN   MON CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE      48  37.9 FRI 11 AM  38.3  38.9  39.5 46.5 SAT 3/19A        

$$

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-060028-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* AT 11:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET SUNDAY MARCH 20TH.
* IMPACT...AT 41.0 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT 
  THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
  BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE 
  VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE 
  COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM, 
  AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA 
  NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SAT   SUN   MON CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG       43  30.8 FRI 11 AM  31.3  31.9  32.5 40.5 SUN 3/20P        

$$

LAC029-MSC001-157-060028-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 11:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET TUESDAY MARCH 22ND.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD 
  GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT 
  ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED 
  ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE 
  AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ.  ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
  IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
  AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED 
  UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SAT   SUN   MON CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ         48  36.2 FRI 11 AM  36.5  37.2  37.9 47.5  TUE 3/22A

$$

775 
WGUS84 KJAN 051907
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 
107 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011


...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
   BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST 
   CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
   CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND 
   WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES 


 SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FEBRUARY 24TH PRODUCED 
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF 
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEKEND 
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS 
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN 
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER 
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND 
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET WHICH IS 9 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LOWER CRESTS ON THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS NECESSITATED MOVING THE CREST OUT FURTHER
IN TIME UNTIL MARCH 11TH BUT KEEPING THE CREST THE SAME AS PRIOR DAYS.
THIS IS A LITTLE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE ALONG THE LOWER RIVER. 

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL THE LAST PORTION OF THE THIRD
WEEK AND INTO THE FOURTH WEEK OF MARCH. CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...WITH NATCHEZ BEING VERY CLOSE WITH AN EXPECTED
CREST NEAR 47.5 FEET. FLOOD STAGE AT NATCHEZ IS 48 FEET.

RAINFALL HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FORECASTED 
CRESTS TO BE RAISED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
STAY ADVISED OF CHANGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

AN UPDATED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING.


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-070107-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
107 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35.0 FEET FRIDAY 3/18.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY   37  28.3 SAT 12 PM  28.9  29.5  30.2  35.0 FRI 3/18A

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-070107-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
107 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 39.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET SATURDAY 3/19.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
  UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 42.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE      48  39.0 SAT 12 PM  39.6  40.3  40.9  46.5 SAT 3/19A

$$

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-070107-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
107 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET SUNDAY 3/20.
* IMPACT...AT 41.0 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT 
  THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
  BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE 
  VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE 
  COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM, 
  AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA 
  NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG       43  32.2 SAT 12 PM  32.8  33.3  34.0  40.5 SUN 3/20P         

$$

LAC029-MSC001-157-070107-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
107 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET TUESDAY 3/22.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD 
  GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT 
  ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED 
  ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE 
  AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ.  ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
  IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
  AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED 
  UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ         48  37.8 SAT 12 PM  38.3  39.1  39.8  47.5 TUE 3/22A       

$$

587 
WGUS84 KJAN 051912
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 
112 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011


...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
   BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST 
   CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
   CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES 

  *MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND 
   WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES 


 SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FEBRUARY 24TH PRODUCED 
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF 
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEKEND 
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS 
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN 
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER 
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND 
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET WHICH IS 9 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LOWER CRESTS ON THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS NECESSITATED MOVING THE CREST OUT FURTHER
IN TIME UNTIL MARCH 11TH BUT KEEPING THE CREST THE SAME AS PRIOR DAYS.
THIS IS A LITTLE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE ALONG THE LOWER RIVER. 

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL THE LAST PORTION OF THE THIRD
WEEK AND INTO THE FOURTH WEEK OF MARCH. CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...WITH NATCHEZ BEING VERY CLOSE WITH AN EXPECTED
CREST NEAR 47.5 FEET. FLOOD STAGE AT NATCHEZ IS 48 FEET.

RAINFALL HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FORECASTED 
CRESTS TO BE RAISED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
STAY ADVISED OF CHANGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

AN UPDATED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING.


ARC017-041-MSC011-151-070112-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
112 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35.0 FEET FRIDAY 3/18.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY   37  28.3 SAT 12 PM  28.9  29.5  30.2  35.0 FRI 3/18A

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-070112-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
112 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 39.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET SATURDAY 3/19.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
  UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 42.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE      48  39.0 SAT 12 PM  39.6  40.3  40.9  46.5 SAT 3/19A

$$

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-070112-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
112 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET SUNDAY 3/20.
* IMPACT...AT 41.0 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT 
  THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
  BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE 
  VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT...AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE 
  COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM, 
  AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA 
  NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG       43  32.2 SAT 12 PM  32.8  33.3  34.0  40.5 SUN 3/20P        

$$

LAC029-MSC001-157-070112-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
112 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* AT 12:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET TUESDAY 3/22.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT...AT 47.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD 
  GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT 
  ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED 
  ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE 
  AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ.  ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
  IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
  AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED 
  UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ         48  37.8 SAT 12 PM  38.3  39.1  39.8  47.5 TUE 3/22A        

$$

048 
WGUS84 KJAN 061942
FLSJAN
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 
142 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

  MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
  BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST 
  CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES 

  MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
  CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES 

  MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND 
  WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES 

 SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL STORMS SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FEBRUARY 24TH PRODUCED 
FROM 2 T0 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF 
MISSOURI AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS WHICH FLOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER FROM
THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEKEND 
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL RUNOFF AS WELL AS 
RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS PRODUCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN 
INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LATEST RIVER CREST FORECAST FOR THE OHIO RIVER 
AT CAIRO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND 
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...CALLS FOR A CREST OF 49.0 FEET WHICH IS 9 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LOWER CRESTS ON THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS NECESSITATED MOVING THE CREST OUT FURTHER
IN TIME UNTIL MARCH 11TH BUT KEEPING THE CREST THE SAME AS PRIOR DAYS.
THIS IS A LITTLE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE ALONG THE LOWER RIVER. 

MODERATE RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE RIVER IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CREST ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER UNTIL THE LAST PORTION OF THE THIRD
WEEK AND INTO THE FOURTH WEEK OF MARCH. CURRENT CREST FORECASTS ARE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...WITH NATCHEZ BEING VERY CLOSE WITH AN EXPECTED
CREST NEAR 47.5 FEET. FLOOD STAGE AT NATCHEZ IS 48 FEET.

RAINFALL HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FORECASTED 
CRESTS TO BE RAISED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
STAY ADVISED OF CHANGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

AN UPDATED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING. 

ARC017-041-MSC011-151-071200-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
142 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* AT 12:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 29 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 35 FEET FRIDAY MARCH 18.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY   37  29.0 SUN 12 PM  29.6  30.5  31.1  35.0 FRI 3/18A

$$

ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-071200-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/GEEM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
142 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE.
* AT 12:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 40 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 46.5 FEET SATURDAY MARCH 19.
* IMPACT AT 45 FEET...BOTTOMLAND NEAR RIVER IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT AT 44.5 FEET...ROAD TO BUNGE CORPORATION GRAIN ELEVATORS IS
  UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT AT 43.5 FEET...LOWER LAKE FERGUSON ROAD BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT AT 42 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE FERGUSON.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE      48  40.0 SUN 12 PM  40.5  41.1  42.0  46.5 SAT 3/19A

$$

LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-071200-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/VCKM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
142 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG.
* AT 1:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 33.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 40.5 FEET SUNDAY MARCH 20.
* IMPACT AT 41 FEET...THE STORM WATER DRAIN VALVES ARE CLOSED AT 
  THE FLOOD GATES ALONG THE VICKSBURG WATER FRONT.
* IMPACT AT 40 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS IN THE LONG LAKE AND CHICKASAW
  BAYOU COMMUNITIES ARE INUNDATED.
* IMPACT AT 39 FEET...BEGIN CLOSING FIRST FLOOD GATE AT THE 
  VICKSBURG WATERFRONT.
* IMPACT AT 36.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LONG LAKE 
  COMMUNITY.
* IMPACT AT 35 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF FARM, 
  AGRICULTURAL, AND BOTTOM LAND FLOODS. IN THE YAZOO BACKWATER AREA 
  NORTH OF THE CITY, HUNTING CAMPS AND FORESTED LAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG       43  33.2 SUN 01 PM  33.6  34.3  34.9  40.5 SUN 3/20P

$$

LAC029-MSC001-157-071200-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
/NTZM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
142 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ.
* AT 12:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 39.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 47.5 FEET TUESDAY MARCH 22.
* IMPACT AT 48 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
* IMPACT AT 47 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORMER BELWOOD 
  GOLF COURSE AND CARTHAGE POINT ROAD AREA SOUTH OF NATCHEZ.
* IMPACT AT 45 FEET...WATER UNDER SOME BUILDINGS AROUND FORT 
  ADAMS, MISSISSIPPI.
* IMPACT AT 44 FEET...SOME CAMPS AND MOST ACCESS ROADS FLOODED 
  ALONG LAKE MARY.
* IMPACT AT 43 FEET...WATER IS OVER THORNBURG LAKE ROAD IN THE 
  AREA KNOWN AS ANNA'S BOTTOM NORTH OF NATCHEZ.  ALSO, LAKE MARY ROAD
  IS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT AT 38 FEET...LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IN AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD. SOME OF THESE AREAS CONTAIN OIL
  AND GAS WELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTED 
  UNTIL HIGHER STAGES.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ         48  39.2 SUN 12 PM  39.6  40.3  40.8  47.5 TUE 3/22A

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood advisory went out at Mar 1, 3:28 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 3:28 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLAMISS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
MS. TYPICALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON THE FIRST DAY OF
MARCH...BUT RECENT RECORD WARMTH HAS BROUGHT AN EARLY GROWING SEASON
AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF FROST IN THE HWO AND FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AND SURFACE PRESSURES WILL
GRADUALLY FALL AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. ALONG
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
GREATER MOISTURE AND PERHAPS SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS ON THIS WEEKEND (SPECIFICALLY SATURDAY) WHEN IMPACT
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

PROGRESSIVE CONUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH
A VIGOROUS AND FAST HIGH LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LA-NINA SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
WEAKENING A BIT IN THE VICINITY THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
BUCKLE AS IT EXITS THE ROCKIES AND INDUCES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT) COMING THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL MODELS (AS
WELL AS THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE) SHOW THIS RATHER WELL...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS MEMBERS ADVERTISE A LESS SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING PROBABLY LESS OF FACTOR WITH THIS COMING EVENT...FORECASTER
THINKING IS THAT THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE ON THE MORE
CORRECT TRACK. THESE LATTER MODELS ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONE TO BRING DOWN THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY). IN
FACT...TAKING THE 00Z EURO SOLUTION AT FACE VALUE...SUGGESTS SOME
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. I DID TWEAK THE FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD THE EUROPEAN
OVERALL SOLUTION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT I DID NOT GO AS FAR AS
TO INTRODUCE SNOW IN THE FORECAST QUITE YET.

UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS (ESPECIALLY THE ONE FROM
YESTERDAY)...RAIN SHOULD NOT BE SO HARD TO COME BY SINCE MAJOR
THERMAL CAPPING SHOULD NOT BE AROUND TO OFFER A BIG IMPEDIMENT TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS COULD BEGIN IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED FASHION BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN REALLY PROBABLY BE QUITE NUMEROUS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MOISTURE LEVELS BEING
TAPPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY HIGH
(CONSIDERING ITS MARCH)...BUT ATMOSPHERIC LIFT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. TAKING THAT INTO
CONSIDERATION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME RAIN TOTALS WELL OVER
AN INCH WITH THIS EVENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ANTICIPATED
ALSO SUGGEST A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THAT CANNOT BE
IGNORED...AND CONTRARY TO THE LAST FEW EVENTS...THE RISK SHOULD NOT
BE CONFINED JUST NORTH OF I-20. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT LOTS OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA MAY MITIGATE
AMOUNT OF HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND REPORTS AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE.

SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF SATURDAY'S
COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT TAKE VERY LONG TO MODERATE SINCE THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BE LINING UP TO AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS MORE THAN LIKELY A DRY SPELL OF A FEW DAYS
WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...

.VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GO CALM TONIGHT AS SKC SHOULD PREVAIL. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  37  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      68  34  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     67  35  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   71  37  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       67  38  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    62  36  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  35  70  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/28/BB

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 2:32 PM CST, 2 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
022045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
232 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. THIS MAY
BRING AREAS OF FROST TO THE ARKLAMISS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

28

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 4:50 PM CST	River Flood Advisory	JAN	Chicot, Desha	6 days
Mar 1, 4:50 PM CST	River Flood Advisory	JAN	Madison, Tensas	6 days
Mar 1, 4:50 PM CST	River Flood Advisory	JAN	Concordia	6 days

Nearby

River Flood Advisories in Mississippi, 2011 River Flood Advisories in Arkansas, 2011 River Flood Advisories in Louisiana, 2011 Every river flood advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.