Hard Freeze Warning 3, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO ON
TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT THAT IS GENERALLY IN THE NOISE OF THE
SYSTEMS EVOLUTION. FLURRIES HAVE STARTED ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES
AND I LOOK FOR THIS TRANSITION TO CONTINUE AS THINGS PUSH EAST. THE
PRECIP ACROSS NW/N LA HAS A MORE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE THAN THE
SNOWY LOOKING ECHOS OVER AR. THIS PRECIP AREA ACROSS NW/N LA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD AND INITIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE COOLING ALOFT ALLOWS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER
TODAY. YOU CAN BASICALLY TAKE THE SAME EVOLUTION WITH THE INITIAL
PRECIP STARTING AS RAIN WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FAR NORTH...AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
82...MAY ONLY SEE ALL SNOW WITH THIS AND NOT ANY INITIAL RAIN. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NE PORTION WHERE THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WILL BE LATER AND THERE IS MORE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER ONCE
THE PRECIP STARTS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. THE FAR S/SE...IT MAY ONLY OCCUR AS RAIN WITH NO CHANGE OVER
OR A VERY LATE CHANGE OVER. THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS MORE RAIN
SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

AS FOR TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREV
THINKING AND FORECASTS. LATEST GRAPHICASTS PAINT THIS WELL AND I
WILL REFER TO THOSE SO I CAN KEEP THIS SHORT. SAME GOES FOR
AMOUNTS...WE MAY ADJ THESE GRAPHICS AS THINGS EVOLVE AND KEEP UP
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS.

I WILL SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS OVER ACHIEVED TO OUR NW AND MAY DO
SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MY GUESS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE OUR
NW/N PORTIONS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. THIS WOULD BE BASED OFF THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER(1-2 HRS) ONSET OF SNOW AND THAT SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS
WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH.

THIS WINTER EVENT WILL NOT BE A LONG DURATION EVENT...THERE WILL BE
A WINDOW OF 3-4 HRS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL AS THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND MOVES EASTWARD. IN THIS WINDOW IS WHERE THE MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THINGS END AND EXIT TO THE EAST.

LASTLY...CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADV ARE LOOKING GOOD AND
NO ADJ ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE DELTA THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. STARTED THE WINTER PRECIP IN THE NORTHWEST
TAFS THIS MORNING THEN ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WINTER PRECIP AND RAINS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
WORSEN BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ICING...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND A MIXED BAG OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOME ICING ISSUES FOR FLIGHTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST
AS WE GET TO DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT SURFACE ICE COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  24  37  19 /  82  85   7   4
MERIDIAN      53  25  42  19 /  49  92   8   5
VICKSBURG     42  22  34  17 /  95  61   6   2
HATTIESBURG   54  30  45  25 /  54  84   9  11
NATCHEZ       44  24  38  20 /  92  62   7   4
GREENVILLE    35  17  30  14 /  98  47   5   0
GREENWOOD     41  17  35  13 /  89  61   6   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ031-039-045-046-050>052.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MSZ026>030-032-033-036>038-042>044-047>049-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025-034-035-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR MSZ055>058.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MSZ054-059-060.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR LAZ024-026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/15/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-101230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
WARREN-
617 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
AND MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF WINTER WEATHER OPERATIONS
WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MSZ029>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-101230-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-
617 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WARNING PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 30S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF WINTER WEATHER OPERATIONS
WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LAZ024>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-101230-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
617 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR...WHERE A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EC

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