Flash Flood Warning 164, NWS Jackson, MS

955 
WGUS74 KJAN 270003
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
603 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

MSC029-085-270014-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0164.000000T0000Z-111227T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN MS-COPIAH MS-
603 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR COPIAH AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3138 9060 3145 9063 3161 9063 3161 9071
      3164 9073 3198 9071 3199 9026 3160 9025
      3137 9026

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

...HEAVY RAIN ENDS TONIGHT WITH QUIETER WEATHER WEEK AHEAD...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. APPEARS AS THOUGH MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.  HAVE SEEN INCREASING LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE LAST 60 MINUTES. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT ENDING IN WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SW TO NE FROM
06Z TO 12Z AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER UPPER LOW PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...LOOKS AS THOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING OR
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD SHIELD. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS PRETTY RAPID CLEARING IN
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.

TUESDAY NIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD
SHOULD SUPPORT THE COLDEST NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR A BIT BLO FREEZING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE...BUT GIVEN VERY WET
GROUND AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CUTS TO GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
ISSUES AS WELL...SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER THIS...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND CONUS. ECMWF/UKMET SHOW PATTERN
RAPIDLY EVOLVING INTO A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SETUP IN THE DAY 6-10
PERIOD...WHILE GFS SHOWS LITTLE SUCH TREND. WHILE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT...THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS PATTERN AND SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE. MADE NO CHANGES TO LONGER TERM AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM
SECTION FOLLOWS.   /08/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE MOST PART. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

A NICE BEGINNING TO THE NEW YEARS WEEKEND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NICE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ON NEW YEARS EVE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THERE SOLUTIONS AS WE PASS THROUGH THE NEW
YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE EURO
INDICATING A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SEVERE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THE GFS FURTHER EAST WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH AND MAINLY INDICATING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST
SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH THIS
SCENARIO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY SEVERE IN THE HWO. COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY EITHER WAY.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
DID WARM TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND ALSO
BUMPED UP POPS TO INDICATE CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY./15/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AS AREAS
OF STEADY RAIN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENTS
BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE W. SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSRA WILL ALSO LAST
UNTIL 06Z W PORTIONS TO 10Z E PORTIONS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
REPORTS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING 14-18Z WITH RAIN ENDING AND THEN
FINALLY VFR CEILINGS RETURNING DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.  OVERALL
SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST SELY AT 10-16KTS EARLY TONIGHT AND BE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING/INCREASING FROM THE NW AT
12-18KTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING./40/

&&

.HYDROLOGY...KDGX USP PRODUCT SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ALONG/SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH A
COUPLE OF PRETTY LARGE SWATHS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. 88D SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING RAIN ESTIMATES
QUITE WELL IN THIS AREA...BUT OVERESTIMATING IN THE DELTA WHERE
BRIGHTBANDING HAS BEEN A PROBLEM. MANY RIVERS ARE NOW RISING RATHER
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POINTS FORECAST TO REACH ACTION OR
FLOOD STAGE. WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO MONITOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
EVENING TO SEE HOW AREA RIVERS WILL BE AFFECTED...RIGHT NOW A GENERAL
ADDITIONAL .75 TO 1.5 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH HEAVIEST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR SWATHS OF LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS THIS EVENING.
THESE AREAS...ALONG WITH ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR TWO IN AN HOUR...WOULD BE WHERE ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD
ARISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       42  55  32  55 / 100   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  57  30  56 / 100   6   0   0
VICKSBURG     40  56  31  56 /  86   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  59  35  59 /  95   9   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  55  32  56 /  83   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    41  55  33  52 /  91   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  54  30  52 / 100   7   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

08/40/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
272030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
218 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WAS IN PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REACHING 4
INCHES TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
DELTA REGION AND INCREASE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT.

SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL INCLUDING LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND MAY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EARLY TUESDAY. JUST AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH OF RAIN IN
SHORT BURSTS WILL PRODUCE RISING WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS AND RIVERS
AND ENABLE WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST THE LONGEST.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER LOUISIANA WILL HEAD INTO
EAST MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT. OUR RAINS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...AND END IN OUR EAST PORTIONS TUESDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

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