Flash Flood Warning 146, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
756 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

.UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS SHIFTING ACROSS MS FASTER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
THINKING...WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RAINS TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS IN
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW THAT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER NORTHERN
AL. IN FACT...LATEST SREF OUTPUT HOLDS ON TO PRECIP UP ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE FINALLY
COMING TO AN END TOMORROW EVENING. NOT GOING TO KEEP POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF MY CWA FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK HERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN POSTED. /BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011/

DISCUSSION...

..EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MS TODAY
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TONIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOCATED ALL
ACROSS EASTERN MS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE
AREA OF CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHED GENERALLY ALONG THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKY NORTH OF JACKSON. ACROSS THESE AREAS RAINFALL
RATES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
2+IN/HR OVER A LARGE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT
GOING TO END EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS
IS GOING TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LEE SHIFTS
EAST FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR TODAY EAST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-20. ACROSS THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS.
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY AS A RESULT...POSSIBLY LEADING
TO FLOODED HOMES AND WATER RESCUES. HWO AND GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED
TO REFLECT CURRENT THOUGHTS.

THE HEAVIEST RAINS THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
AREA BEFORE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES SHIFT INTO ALABAMA SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN A FEW TORNADOES ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MS TODAY IN A PSUEDO WARM SECTOR WHERE THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED. A TORNADO WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MS UNTIL 7AM...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TODAY FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25
MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH. WHILE MARGINAL THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...WILL CONTINUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL NOT BE IN ANY
HURRY TO LIFT OUT OF THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF I-55 AS A RESULT.
A COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF LEE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY AND
TUE WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S...WHILE LOWS TUE NIGHT FALL INTO
THE MID 50S.

THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LEANED ON FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS...AS
THE 00Z GFS SEEMED A BIT FAST TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. SEVERAL CHANGES
TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WERE NEEDED AS A RESULT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUE
WERE DROPPED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDI TONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED(AND
RAINS TODAY)...WITH LOWS TONIGHT INCREASED A BIT FOR THE SAME
REASON. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUE WERE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION. /BK/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD LEE WILL MEANDER
AROUND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ARKLAMISS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HELP TO MAINTAINING DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ARE GOING TO PLAGUE THE REGION
TODAY WITH GUSTY E TO N SFC WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE W WILL OCCUR THRU THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW WDSPRD IFR CIGS WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
XPCT OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE HOWEVER A
CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDS INVOF OF HEAVY RAIN AREAS IS LIKELY.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF PLANNING FLIGHT IN EASTERN MS TODAY.
NOT ONLY WILL WINDS BE STRONG AND PRECIP EXTREME AT TIMES...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE PSBL. /BK/

HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO FLOOD STAGE TODAY AS A
RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT CONTINUES TO FALL. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF 7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ACCUMULATED ACROSS
SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL MS...WITH SIMILAR PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AFTER TODAYS RAINS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE BEING
UPDATED AS OF THIS WRITING AND ADDITIONAL INFO WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  60  75  54 /  92  10   2   7
MERIDIAN      77  63  75  56 / 100  16   2   9
VICKSBURG     73  58  78  51 /  10  10   2   6
HATTIESBURG   79  64  79  55 / 100  10   2   3
NATCHEZ       73  58  75  53 /  10  10   2   1
GREENVILLE    74  58  75  53 /  10  11   4   6
GREENWOOD     73  59  74  54 /  50  10   7   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ028>033-037>039-
     044>046-050>052.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-027-036-
     042-043-048-049-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

BK/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
558 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-061100-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
558 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PIVOT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE INTERACTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LEE WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH TIME...AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE RISK IS SMALL...BRIEF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL HAVE ENDED BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ043-048-049-054>058-062>066-072>074-061100-
MADISON MS-HINDS-RANKIN-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
558 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE INTERACT WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM
PIVOTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF A PELAHATCHIE TO
COLLINS LINE WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-053-059>061-061100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-
558 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA AREAS. THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST RIDGELAND               32.42N 90.13W
09/05/2011  E45 MPH          MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON LIVINGSTON ROAD...REPORTED
            BY RIDGELAND PD

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
657 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CRYSTAL SPRINGS         31.99N 90.36W
09/05/2011  E45 MPH          COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN THE CRYSTAL SPRINGS AREA

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N MADDEN              32.71N 89.35W
09/05/2011                   LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            HWY 488 NEAR JOLLY RD FLOODED

&&

CARPENTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE VICKSBURG          32.28N 90.81W
09/05/2011  E45 MPH          WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY FROM
            STRONG GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE RAIN. A CAR STRUCK A
            TREE ON HWY 27 SOUTH OF I-20 INJURING ONE OCCUPANT. A FEW
            POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO OCCURRING.

&&

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLOWOOD                 32.32N 90.11W
09/05/2011                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            EIGHT CARS AT BARNETT BODY SHOP HAD WATER AROUND HALFWAY
            UP THE CAR DOORS OFF OF AIRPORT ROAD.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
804 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RIDGELAND               32.42N 90.13W
09/05/2011                   MADISON            MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BRASHEARS CREEK WELL OUT OF ITS BANKS. RICE ROAD CLOSED
            DUE TO WATER ACROSS IT.

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLOWOOD                 32.32N 90.11W
09/05/2011                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CREEK RUNNING UNDER FLOWOOD DRIVE AT AIR NATIONAL GUARD
            BASE WELL OUT OF ITS BANKS. WATER PARTIALLY OVER FLOWOOD
            DRIVE...AND COMPLETELY COVERING ACCESS ROAD TO ANGB OFF
            OF FLOWOOD DRIVE.

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PHILADELPHIA            32.77N 89.11W
09/05/2011                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS IN PHILADELPHIA NOW CLOSED. PORTIONS OF HWY
            19 SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA CLOSED.

&&

GERARD