Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Jackson, MS

287 
WGUS74 KJAN 231604
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

MSC007-097-231612-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0106.000000T0000Z-110723T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATTALA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
1104 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
AND ATTALA COUNTIES...

RADAR ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE 
PAST 4 HOURS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ATTALA COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN 
OVER THE WARNED AREA HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY IN THE PAST HOUR AND 
WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE RECEDING...ALTHOUGH PONDED WATER MAY STILL BE 
ENCOUNTERED. IF YOU HAVE REPORTS OF CURRENT OR PRIOR FLOODING PLEASE 
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON. 

LAT...LON 3343 8945 3329 8946 3328 8934 3295 8954
      3297 8988 3298 8989 3304 8983 3305 8984
      3307 8982 3329 8969 3329 8965 3335 8965
      3347 8957

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHEAST TO
NEAR GREENWOOD MS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO HEAT
SOME THIS MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.4 INCHES
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TODAY...HIGH POPS
ARE IN ORDER. WHILE I DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL DAY RAIN...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY. DUE TO THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

THE RAINFALL WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

HIGHS ARE TOUGH TODAY AND ARE BASED ON AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. IF RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THEN HIGHS MAY NEED TO
BE CUT BACK.

.LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL SIT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON THE WRN FRINGES OF TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE EAST
COAST. A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO NRN MS
TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH TIME TO LEAVE A REGION OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER SRN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NO
LONGER SO GUNG HO ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER RIDGING FOR NEXT
WEEK...INSTEAD THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION OF UPPER
TROUGHING TO OUR EAST DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION FOR THURSDAY AS PAINTED BY EARLIER GFS RUNS. THE GFS
HAS PEGGED UPPER RIDGING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON THIS
RUN...FILTERING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AND AS A RESULT IN DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INTO NRN MS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS IN
THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND VALUES BELOW 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST EURO IS MORE CONSERVATIVE ON
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTION AND KEEPS APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REBOUND QUICKLY
THURSDAY WHEN SUBSIDENCE GIVES WAY TO THE EFFECTS OF UPPER TROUGHING
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DEVELOPS UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR FRIDAY WHEN
UPPER RIDGING WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO PAINT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH MEX MOS IS PULLING BACK FROM HIGHER COVERAGE OF
UPPER 90S ADVERTISED EARLIER. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL
INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN ZONES.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OPPOSED TO THE SEMI-TROPICAL PRECIPITATION OBSERVED RECENTLY
OVER THE REGION. BEING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DRIER AIR AND THE
DEGREE OF RIDGING THAT WILL OCCUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...THE EURO
REMAINS MOISTER AND COOLER FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE ON COOLER
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN THURSDAY WHEN
WHATEVER SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH GIVES WAY TO INCREASING
TROUGHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AT KJAN AND MVFR FOG AT
KMEI BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES WITH SOME PATCHY
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY WHICH ARE CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IF MODEL GUIDANCE
IS CORRECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  75  94  75 /  56  39  42  36
MERIDIAN      92  73  94  73 /  55  33  38  42
VICKSBURG     91  74  94  74 /  56  37  41  30
HATTIESBURG   93  75  95  75 /  56  21  38  22
NATCHEZ       89  74  92  73 /  56  23  45  19
GREENVILLE    92  75  94  75 /  56  50  47  41
GREENWOOD     92  75  94  75 /  56  51  50  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

02/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
240915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. WHERE
THE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM GMT SAT JUL 23 2011

MSZ027-028-032-037-044-231350-
ATTALA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-LEAKE MS-CHOCTAW MS-CARROLL MS-
752 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

A LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WAS LOCATED FROM 6
MILES WEST OF POPLAR CREEK TO THOMASTOWN AT 751 AM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LINE AND PONDING OF WATER WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED ON AREA ROADWAYS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...WEST CENTRAL CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN
LEAKE...SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3346 8950 3347 8934 3304 8934 3272 8972
      3289 8974 3339 8974 3358 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 226DEG 15KT 3337 8965 3287 8966

BYB