Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WAVE RIDING
ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
EXTREME DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED WITH 150 KNOT JET CORE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS. A TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT WITH 20Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATING BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
FAR NORTHERN EXTENT BASED ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS CAN BE APPROXIMATELY DELINEATED BY CURRENT POSITIONING OF SHARP
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR CONTINUED LOW TOP SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE...WITH PERIODIC BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AREAS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO MAINTENANCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. APPROACH OF NEXT SFC TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...APPROACHING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MAY ACT TO
ENHANCE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONDITIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR SCT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY CHANCES. WILL KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE THERMAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. THE NEXT STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET
WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LONGWAVE
AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF CONUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011/

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WARM FRONT HAS
REACHED KFWA WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. THIS SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH KFWA MARKING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
GREATER INSTABILITY. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE MORE ISOLD OR SCT AT
KSBN...BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT KSBN SHOULD BE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WIND SHEAR AND PLACEMENT OF
INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG/SEVERE AND DID
INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS IN TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR FWA.
THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END AT EARLY THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DIMINISHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FAVOR SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
442 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             2 NW WARREN             40.70N  85.45W
11/14/2011  M0.88 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO SOME SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN ON I69 MM76

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
445 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             1 SE PLUM TREE          40.73N  85.37W
11/14/2011  M1.00 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
448 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLOOD            DEFIANCE                41.28N  84.36W
11/14/2011                   DEFIANCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME FLOODED ROADS

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
453 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             N MARION                40.56N  85.66W
11/14/2011  M0.25 INCH       GRANT              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF MARION

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
503 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             KEYSTONE                40.60N  85.26W
11/14/2011  M0.75 INCH       WELLS              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
535 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INZ027-033-034-142300-
ADAMS IN-BLACKFORD IN-JAY IN-
535 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

AT 533 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PENNVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
DUNKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 90 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PORTLAND...
  GENEVA...
  CENTER...BLAINE AND COLLEGE CORNER...
  NEW CORYDON...BRYANT AND TRINITY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

LAT...LON 4039 8522 4039 8544 4051 8544 4057 8517
      4057 8507 4059 8507 4064 8480 4032 8480
      4032 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 252DEG 79KT 4049 8517

JC