Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE
COMBINED INTO MAINLY ONE WHICH IS MOVING SE AND WILL AFFECT THE
KFWA TERMINAL WITH A WIND SHIFT AND A STRONGER GUST OF UPWARDS OF
15-20KTS NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PD. OTHERWISE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ANY TSRA OVER ONE TERMINAL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMD IF NECESSARY.

NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WI/IA THAT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT/SUN. EVEN BEHIND THIS FRONT
EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INCLUDING KFWA AND KAOH.
KSBN SHOULD CLEAR OUT...IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SUN MORNING AND INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BECOME AN ISSUE AS FLOW
BECOMES NNW AND CAA WORKS DOWN OUT OF CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE IN ANY TSRA BUT SUSPECT THEM TO BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS IN GENERAL OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011/

MARINE...

STRONG NNW WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERATE LARGE WAVES...HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS... AND
THE INCREASE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LAST
YEAR WHEN NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES WERE NEEDED AND FATALITIES
OCCURRED BECAUSE OF THE HIGH WAVES AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011/

SHORT TERM...

MAIN ISSUE THIS PD IS THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SW
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SURF COLD FRONT STRETCHING FM NORTHERN MN DOWN THROUGH NW IA WILL
PUSH EWARD. THIS WILL CONT TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HOWEVER WAA REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW ONE LAST
AFTERNOON/EVENING OF HOT...HUMID...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO EXIST.

AFTER REMAINING CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SCT
CU ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINLY ESE OF AN
UNDULAR BORE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
THEN MIXED OUT. STILL EXPECT AREA OF CONVECTION OUT WEST ACROSS SE
WI/N IL/IA TO WORK EASTWARD. CANT RULE OUT A A FEW SCT TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD...AS SEEN ACROSS THE CHICAGO-LAND
AREA...GIVEN INSTABILITY ALREADY AOA 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A
CONTINUING WEAKENING CAP. THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SVR STORMS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE SLOWLY MOVING AFFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACCOMPINED BY INCREASING NNW WINDS AS THE SW
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
STRONG CAA WILL ALSO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RELIEF FROM ALL
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS NW LOCATIONS GIVEN DELTA T VALUES AND LONG NNW FETCH.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S...AND THEN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GENERAL EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL AS BLOCKED MID LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS PER TROPICAL SYSTEM INFLUENCES. DEEP MID LEVEL
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SUPPORT MASSIVE
WESTERN NOAM HEIGHT RISES...FURTHER SUPPORTING EASTERN CONUS CUT OFF
TROUGHING FLOW...WHILE THE BULK OF FAST WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS
INTERIOR CANADA. LINGERING MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE WHILE KATIA MOVES NORTH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS ARE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS WHICH ALIGN WITH TELECONNECTION CONCERNS AND THE
PREFERRED PATTERN EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH EACH SOLUTION PROVIDES
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MON...LINGERING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WITH SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
LL OMEGA WILL BE PRESENT EARLY...ESP GIVEN THE LONG TRAJECTORY
SETUP. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT RAIN CHANCE OVER
THE NW ZONES MAINLY MON AM. RETAINED LOW POPS NW MONDAY
AM...SPREADING LOW CHANCE MENTION EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
GIVEN DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY PER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT...WHICH SUPPORTS NEGATIVE LI/S IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTION/S...LIKELY ACCENTUATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING LATENT HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUX. CONTINUED STRONG
INDICATIONS FOR APPRECIABLE THERMAL FALLS SUPPORT COOL HIGHS AT ALL
PLACES...WITH MIXING TO H85 SUPPORTING UPPER 60S MOST PLACES SAVE
THE SE.

THUR-SAT...SEASONAL CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH OVERALL BLOCKED FLOW. LEE
REMNANTS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE
PRESENT AND BLOCKED FLOW LIKELY SUPPORTING SYSTEM TRAJECTORIES INTO
THE OH VALLEY...HAVE MAINTAINED INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SE THUR-FRI
WITH A LOW CHANCE POP MENTION FOR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE.
RETAINED POPS ONLY IN THE SOUTH GIVEN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW/TRACK
UNCERTAINTY/AND HIGHEST CLUSTERING OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TRACKS
AND QPF. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL SUPPORT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH REMAINED CONSERVATIVE PER FRIDAY/S HIGHS /ESP
SE/ GIVEN POTENTIAL CLOSED UPPER LOW/LEE INFLUENCE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES AND CLOUD POTENTIAL. OPTED TO RETAIN A DRY FORECAST PER
SATURDAY GIVEN STANDARD LOW CONFIDENCE IN UPPER LOW
LOCATION...TRENDING MORE TOWARD CLIMO ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...SC
MARINE...SC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
512 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-042115-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
512 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011 /412 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-042115-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
512 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011 /412 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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