Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...

DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING AND MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH CATEGORICAL TO
SCATTERED WORDING INTO EARLY EVENING.

BRIEF LULL EXPECTED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES DROPS INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS BEING
PROGGED BY MODELS AND PROFILER DATA THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING STRONG 25
TO 35 KNOTS ONGOING. THIS LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WARM FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING THETA E TO
DEVELOP ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS AS
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG BOUNDARY IN NE AND WESTERN IA AND
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN WI. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO POSSIBLY
CONGEAL INTO MCS AND THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE TRACK OVER OUR AREA.
MODELS STILL DIVERGENT ON TRACK WITH NAM12 KEEPING THESE AREAS
SEPARATE AND SPLITTING THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY WITH GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HANDLED TODAY/S CONVECTION BEST
AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LULL IN ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT TIMING ISSUES ON DEPARTURE OF SYSTEM FROM AREA
WARRANT KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST DURING THE MORNING. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH IN AFTERNOON AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WITH
MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM DRAMATICALLY. KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLOUD COVER ISSUES AND BUST POTENTIAL IF DENSE
CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY AND WARM COMPARED TO RECENT FEW
DAYS. MUCAPES WILL BE IN THE 4-5K J/KG RANGE IF MAX TEMPS IN UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S INDEED REACHED WITH DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S AND
EVEN POOLED INTO LOWER 70S IF DECENT RAINFALL OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THUS
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STORM INITIATION ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
AREA. TIMING OF THIS WAVE WITH COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION IN
AFTERNOON WILL DICTATE LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION OF WHICH MODELS
STILL VARY. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY IN THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY
WHERE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA DOWN TOWARD OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BUT WITH IRENE SPINNING SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE SE US COAST EXPECT GULF TO BE CUT OFF AND THIS BOUNDARY TO
BE LACKING IN MOISTURE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...HOW THIS IS ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
HERE. CURRENT TRENDS FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT STILL FAVOR LEAVING FORECAST DRY...GIVEN
THAT MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL AOB CLIMO FOR POPS AND ALSO TO SEE
IF THIS SOLN IS ABLE TO GAIN SOME ADDL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM U70S-L80S AND LOWS U50S-L60S.&&

.AVIATION...
DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CREATING MANY FORECAST ISSUES.
FIRST...RESIDUAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT KSBN FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND TO DEEPER
CONVECTION BUT RATHER LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHRINK. EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO
EVEN MAKE IT INTO KFWA LATE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND AS DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE IS LOST. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSED OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT SO JUST CONTINUED WITH VICINITY THUNDER FOR NOW ESPECIALLY
IN LIGHT OF AFTERNOON SYSTEM. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WED JUST
BEYOND THIS VALID PERIOD BUT THAT SHOULD WARRANT ANOTHER CHANCE AT
TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...LASHLEY

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