Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
836 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.UPDATE...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WERE EXTENDED LOCALLY UNTIL 10 PM EDT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS RIDING AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH 10 PM. MAIN FEATURE AIDING THEM AT THIS POINT IS
COLD POOL BEHIND LINE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A DROP OFF TO SCT SHOWERS AT
BEST BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATE TO REFLECT
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011/

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
LINE OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU SBN TERMINAL AND WILL AFFECT FWA AFTER
0Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW. VISBYS AND CIGS WILL DIP INTO MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATOCU DECK BEHIND STORMS. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
INTO SUN AFTN BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NNW AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

STRONG VORT MAX/SHRTWV MOVG ESE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTN
WILL CONT TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW RATHER WK BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND UPR TROF CONTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS.
LINE OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND WAS MOVG E-SE
ACROSS LM/NE IL THIS AFTN. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPE 2-2.5KJ/KJ
AND DCAPE >1KJ/KG WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THIS
LINE MOVES THROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR LIMITED BUT NEAR 30KT WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. FREEZING LEVELS ALSO
SEASONABLY LOW AROUND 11KFT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGER CELLS. THUS...SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WATCH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED
BEHIND THE LINE/CDFNT EARLY ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA LATE THIS AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DVLP BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STRENGTHENS AND UPR LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROU THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE LOW CONTS TO THE EAST.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST TEMPS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS LIKELY WILL
HOLD MINS ABOVE MOS FCST NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LIKEWISE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT TEMP RISES BLO MOS FCST EAST ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAIN CHALLENGE OF PERIOD IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE NW PACIFIC COAST. UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACCELERATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN
BY MIDWEEK. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. SUSPECT
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ON
THEREFORE LEFT DRY GRIDS AS IS FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP REMAINS OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND BETTER FORCING. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM GOING POP GRIDS GIVEN DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM THE NW TO MORE SOUTHERLY WITH WAA BENEATH THE RIDGE.
HIGHS WILL THEN DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS AND FRI AFTER FROPA.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...OBERGFELL
AVIATION...OBERGFELL
UPDATE...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
112 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-141715-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
112 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 /1212 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-141715-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
112 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 /1212 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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