Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.AVIATION/...
CDFNT MOVG ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTN
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA BY 00Z. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DVLP
ALONG THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE SE ACROSS
NRN INDIANA. STILL A DECENT POTENTIAL THAT STORMS WILL DVLP EAST
OF SBN SO JUST MENTIONED CB IN THEIR TAF THIS AFTN BUT ADDED TSRA
WITH GUSTY WINDS AT FWA. CAA STRATO CU DECK EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA THIS EVE AND LINGER INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTN SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVE... THEN INCREASE A BIT AGAIN
WITH RENEWED DIURNAL MIXING WED MORNING.

.UPDATE...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RATHER STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH STORMS THIS AFTN. COOLING ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT. UPDATED
GRIDS/ZONES FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASE TO POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE E-SE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

POTENT/COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT DELIVERED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FA WITH
AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE AS
A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EWD THROUGH SRN
ONTARIO...DROPPING A CDFNT INTO THE AREA. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED AFTN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG WARRANT THE
CHANCE POP. NOTHING MORE THAN 30/40 POPS THOUGH GIVEN LIMITING
FACTORS INCLUDING A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LVL
FLOW...EROSION OF DEEP MOISTURE BEHIND TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE...AND
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING BYPASSING TO THE NORTH.

CAA PROCESS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO EXPECTED HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGHING TOWARDS THE
QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN STABLE AIR AS POTENTIAL SUBTLE WEAK VORT MAXES
IN WNW FLOW ALOFT OFFER NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS.

THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR (10C AT 850 HPA) OVER WARM LAKE WATERS
(24C) MAY ACTUALLY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
LITTLE ADDED MID LVL LIFT/MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MONTANA
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR. GIVEN THIS AND EXPECTED LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE OPTED FOR LOW CHC POPS IN THE FAR NW 09-18Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS IN OUR MARINE ZONES DURING THIS TIME. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOWS AN EL-LCL DEPTH BTW 23-25 KFT AND 850 HPA DELTA T/S NEAR 14C.
DECIDED TO ADD A CHC FOR WATERSPOUTS GIVEN HOW THIS INFORMATION
LINES UP ON THE NOMOGRAM AND PER COLLABORATION.

A DRY/COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED CWA-WIDE AS THE
FLOW RELAXES IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE
THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER OF A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOW A CLEARLY DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL SIGNATURE WELL UPSTREAM APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM REASONABLY WELL HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
TELECONNECTIONS OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL/500 MB NEGATIVE ANOMALY OFF
THE WEST NORTHERN AMERICAN COAST SUPPORTS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  CURRENT THINKING IS LOW LEVEL THETA E/MOISTURE
WILL SURGE BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PLACED A
LITTLE MORE DETAIL IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE STORMS IN THE
LIGHT OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED GIVEN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MARGINAL CAPE AND LIMITED BULK SHEAR. OTHERWISE...
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS
OPERATION MEX NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FOLLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
101 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-101715-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
101 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011 /1201 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO... AND NORTHERN INDIANA EAST OF A LINE FROM ANGOLA
TO MONON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-101715-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
101 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011 /1201 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL... AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ON SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             SIMONTON LAKE           41.75N  85.98W
08/09/2011  M0.75 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO GUSTY WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101271

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             1 N ELKHART             41.70N  85.98W
08/09/2011  M0.70 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW DIME SIZED STONES.
            ALSO GUSTY WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101272

BENTLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

INZ006-007-MIZ081-OHZ001-092000-
HILLSDALE MI-LAGRANGE IN-STEUBEN IN-WILLIAMS OH-
317 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMS...
SOUTHWESTERN HILLSDALE...STEUBEN AND NORTHEASTERN LAGRANGE
COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF ANGOLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ANGOLA...
  FREMONT...
  NEVADA MILLS...
  CROOKED LAKE...LAKE JAMES AND SILVER LAKE...
  BERLIEN...
  METZ...YORK AND ALVARADO...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4176 8473 4155 8472 4164 8528 4175 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 277DEG 28KT 4168 8517

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

MIZ081-092000-
HILLSDALE MI-
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL HILLSDALE COUNTY...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL HILLSDALE COUNTY...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HILLSDALE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PITTSFORD...
  PRATTVILLE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4190 8437 4190 8435 4178 8436 4177 8462
      4192 8467 4196 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 263DEG 31KT 4185 8455

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             1 NE ANGOLA             41.63N  85.00W
08/09/2011  M0.50 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101273

BENTLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

INZ004-005-092015-
ELKHART IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
340 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH AND WESTERN
ELKHART COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GULIVOIRE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GULIVOIRE PARK...
  WAKARUSA...
  WOODLAND...
  WYATT...
  JIMTOWN...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4164 8599 4149 8601 4156 8639 4167 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 279DEG 26KT 4159 8628