Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WK SFC TROUGH ASSOCD/W SUBTLE MCV OVR SRN MI SPAWNING BKN LINE OF
CONVN SWD INTO CNTRL IN. XPC THIS BKN LINE OF STORMS TO WORK QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF CWA THIS AFTN.

SECONDARY SFC TROUGH UPSTREAM ACRS SRN WI AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS
IN WAKE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY YIELD ADDNL DVLPMNT TWD EVENING SW
HALF...HWVR VEERING LL FLW AND EFFECTS OF LIKELY LK SHADOW
PENETRATION INLAND PROMOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY. THUS WILL CARRY JUST A
SLGT CHC MENTION. OTHERWISE WK SFC RIDGING BLDS IN LATE W/DECOUPLING
BNDRY LYR XPCD. GIVEN RAINFALL THIS AFTN SHLD SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AGAIN TWD SUNRISE.

ON MON...NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR AB THIS AFTN WILL DIG SEWD TWD NRN
LK SP BY 12Z TUE. GIVEN TREND SEEN IN 12Z GUIDANCE AND INDICATIONS
IN HIGHRES GUIDANCE WILL ADD LT AFTN POP MENTION SW AND CARRY THAT
EWD MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FLOW RE-ORGANIZATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUPPORTS A CHANGE IN THE CONUS FLOW PATTERN. FORECAST MODELS AND
MEAN ENSEMBLES ARE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE PER FLATTER LOCAL HEIGHTS
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...OFFERING COOLER THERMAL FIELDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUES. HEIGHT
FORECAST DETAILS STILL MUDDLED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. THIS INCLUDES
LATITUDINAL LOCATION OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX...AND THE DETAILS PER
AN EXPECTED NE PAC UPPER TROUGH /BY DAY 6/ INCLUDING THE POSSIBLE
TROUGH FRACTURE/SPLIT PER THIS FEATURE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HEIGHT
PATTERN IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN MEAN GEFS SOLUTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO
OFFER MODERATE HEIGHT SPREADS BY DAY 7. HENCE...PREFERENCE IS STILL
TOWARD FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND PERSISTENCE BY DAY 6-7...WITH A
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
STABLE SOLUTION PER RUN-RUN NORTHERN CONUS HEIGHTS.

TUESDAY...A STRONG COMPACT IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN BORDER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SUPPORT A SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCKED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS WELL NORTH...STILL SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPLIT SETUP PER
PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED AND
GIVEN DECENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE PER MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WITH AROUND 340K AT H85...WILL CONTINUE LOW POP MENTION. NEGATIVE
THETA-E ADV WILL SUPPORT A COOLING AND DRYING TREND INTO WED.

WED-SUN...MASSIVE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. COOLEST TODAY LOOKS TO BE WED GIVEN H85
TEMP PROGS OVER THE REGION /DOWN TO 10C/. COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S EXPECTED AT MANY PLACES...ALTHOUGH AREAS NEAR LK MI MAY STAY
MIXED GIVEN THE WARM LAKE WATERS. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY
THROUGH SAT...WITH WARMING THERMAL FIELDS AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND SUPPORTS RETURN SW FLOW AND INCREASING LL MOISTURE.
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR A UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE
FRIDAY-SAT WITH DECENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. GIVEN
COLLAB AND PERSISTENT MODEL PROGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...HAVE INCLUDED
LOW POPS FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALG SFC TROUGH ASSOCD/W SUBTLE MCV OVR SRN MI
WILL CONT TO WORK EWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF CWA THIS AFTN. UPSTREAM
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH OVR SRN WI WILL FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND MAY
PROMOTE A SHRA VCNTY KSBN OTHERWISE CLRG XPCD OVERNIGHT. WK SFC
RIDGING AND DECOUPLING BNDRY LYR SHLD AGAIN LEAD TO IFR-MVFR CAT FOG
DVLPMNT LATE LIKE LAST SVRL MORNINGS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...T

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-082315-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011 /612 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LOGANSPORT INDIANA TO THREE RIVERS MICHIGAN LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL INDIANA. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-082315-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011 /612 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE MICHIGAN MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
854 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE GEORGETOWN         41.77N  86.19W
08/07/2011                   CASS               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREE LIMBS AND TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF GUMWOOD DR. AND REDFIELD DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101260

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE STEVENSVILLE       42.03N  86.49W
08/07/2011                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT LINCOLN TOWNSHIP.
            PARTIAL ROOF OFF ABANDONDED HOUSE NEAR NOTRE DAME
            AVENUE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101261

BENTLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
902 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

INZ004-005-016-080145-
ELKHART IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
902 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND SOUTHERN
ELKHART COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

AT 858 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAKARUSA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NAPPANEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NAPPANEE...
  NEW PARIS...
  MILFORD...
  FORAKER...
  GRAVELTON...
  HASTINGS...

LAT...LON 4150 8571 4130 8589 4145 8606 4148 8606
      4148 8610 4150 8613 4160 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 301DEG 23KT 4152 8601

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