Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...
UPSTREAM CONVN CONTS TO WKN W/EWD EXTENT AS IT MOVES OFF ANALYZED LL
THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONED WWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. HWVR DEEPENING
SWRLY FLW AHD OF SEASONABLY STG SW TROUGH EJECTING EWD OUT OF WRN
MN AND ASSOCD CDFNT TRAILING SFC CYCLONE OVR ERN MN DOES BODE
WELL FOR NWRN CWA TO ACHIEVE GREATER INSTABILITY THROUGH LT
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME W/APCH OF SFC CDFNT AND RAMPING LL MSTR
FLUX OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY. THUS WILL CONT PRIOR TREND OF HIGHEST
POPS NW HALF BUT DID BACK TIMING THIS EVENING GIVEN OBSVD TRENDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ADDN... STILL A SUFFICIENT DAMAGING WIND
THREAT PER UPSTREAM MID LVL SPD MAX NR 50KT SEEN IN PROFILER DATA
AND WILL CONT EVENING SVR MENTION NW HALF. SEWD EXTENT OF SVR RISK
IN DOUBT BUT ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LESSOR INSTABILITY
HERE PRECLUDES A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE COMPOSITE OUTFLW/CDFNT XPCD TO PUSH THROUGH ENTIRE CWA BY
12Z WED AND WILL SHED WED AM POPS SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER ESP BY AFTN
AS LK SHADOW ADVTS INLAND ACRS WRN AREAS. SFC RIDGING BLDS WED
NIGHT/THU W/CONTD LL DRYING AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER CAA AND GENERALLY
SIDED W/A COOLER MET MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS PROBABLE AS UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO FLATTEN AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH
THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND CLUSTERING ON FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WHILE GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SHOT FOR SOME
DECENT PRECIP. LOW AMP LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN US WHILE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY BY
SATURDAY. TIMING AND SEPARATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES AFTER
SATURDAY AS THEY ROUND BASE OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX IS PROVING TO BE AN
ISSUE. RATHER THAN ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MULTIPLE
PERIODS...WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GOING POP GRIDS AND LEAVE
MAJORITY DRY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY
WITH HANDLING OF THESE DISTURBANCES. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED THE FLATTENING AND RETROGRADING OF UPPER
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT SEEN RECENTLY. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE AROUND
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. HWVR ADVG CDFNTL BNDRY OUT OF
THE MIDWEST WILL SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE CONVN YET THIS
EVENING AND PARTICULARLY AFFECTING KSBN VCNTY. SEWD EXTENT OF MORE
VIGOROUS CONVN UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF ADDING A MENTION FOR KFWA.
REGARDLESS WINDOW OF POTENTIAL APPEARS BRIEF GIVEN MIGRATORY
NATURE OF SW TROUGH EJECTING EWD OUT OF WRN MN. OTHERWISE SOME
STRATOCU DVLPMNT LIKELY POST FNTL LT TONIGHT/WED AM W/A PD OF MVFR
CONDS PSBL AND WHICH WILL BE REACCESSED IN LTR FCSTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ012-
     013-015-020-022-023-032.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...OBERGFELL
AVIATION...T

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>025-OHZ001-002-004-040315-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011 /1008 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF ILLINOIS LATER THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG THIS LINE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED INTO TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ026-027-032>034-OHZ005-015-016-024-025-040315-
WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-
ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...
MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NAPOLEON...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

MIZ078>081-040315-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...
THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-040315-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011 /1008 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ARE LIKELY LATER
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
905 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILLBURG                42.12N  86.34W
08/02/2011  E60 MPH          BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101235

NG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
951 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLBURG                42.12N  86.34W
08/02/2011                   BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN FROM MILLBURG TO EAU CLAIRE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101236

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1209 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NNW MICHIGAN CITY     41.74N  86.91W
08/02/2011  M44 MPH          LMZ046             IN   C-MAN STATION

            38 KNOT GUST AT MICHIGAN CITY GLERL SITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101237

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1212 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NW BRIDGMAN           41.98N  86.62W
08/02/2011  M43 MPH          LMZ043             MI   BUOY

            37 KNOT GUST AT BUOY OFFSHORE FROM COOK NUCLEAR PLANT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101238

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1213 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WSW SAINT JOSEPH      42.10N  86.52W
08/02/2011  M43 MPH          LMZ043             MI   C-MAN STATION

            37 KNOT GUST AT ST JOSEPH GLERL SITE

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101239

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

INZ013-015-020-022-030545-
CASS IN-FULTON IN-PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
1244 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD CASS...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
MIAMI AND SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND
WHITE AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

AT 1239 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONON TO 7 MILES
NORTH OF WOLCOTT TO 14 MILES WEST OF WOLCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MONTICELLO...
  LOGANSPORT...
  MONON...
  WOLCOTT...
  ROYAL CENTER...
  BROOKSTON...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING/100 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

LAT...LON 4083 8710 4084 8700 4091 8698 4093 8693
      4101 8615 4100 8617 4091 8616 4076 8620
      4070 8638 4070 8653 4075 8653 4075 8675
      4072 8677 4058 8678 4061 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 278DEG 29KT 4093 8685 4085 8701
          4076 8725