Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IN/IL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT
SHRA/TSRA ALONG IT. TS MOVG ACROSS SRN LM WAS WKNG ATTM BUT SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH SBN. TS MORE QUESTIONABLE AT
FWA CLOSER TO OH VALLEY UPR LEVEL RIDGE AND FOR NOW CONTD WITH
TEMPO SHRA/CB MENTION OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBY IN BR/HZ SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THU MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
POTENTIAL FOR SCT TS AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVE...THOUGH FOCUSSING
MECHANISM QUESTIONABLE AND THUS POPS RATHER LOW SO FOR NOW LEFT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. WARM SECTOR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE ALL
PLACED THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE SREF SEEMS TO BE
A BETTER COMPROMISE AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE POP/WX/QPF
GRIDS TONIGHT-THU NIGHT.

THE PLACEMENT WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE CWA WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND ANY RAINFALL WILL DRIVE
TEMPS DOWN EVEN MORE.  IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE
INSOLATION AND FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES/DWPTS
WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS/HEAT INDEX INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S. OF COURSE
THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...FURTHER SOUTH AND
ALL AREAS WILL FEEL THE RELIEF...FURTHER NORTH AND THE HUMIDITY/HEAT
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURE GRIDS
RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BE INTO THE CWA DURING TEH OVERNIGHT THURS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT GRIDDED TRENDS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL COOL FRONT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK STILL ARGUES FOR
MAINTAINING MID RANGE CHANCE TSRA POPS INTO FRIDAY. BASED ON
EXPECTED MORNING TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MINIMAL FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE IN
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY RISK OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AND WEAKLY CAPPED
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH LESS THAN IDEAL LAPSE RATES IN THE 850
TO 700 HPA LAYER AND A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BUT LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER REMOVING MENTION ENTIRELY FOR
SATURDAY. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
SLIGHTLY BETTER POST FRONTAL MIXING SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IDEA
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM BEING REACHED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECWMF
SEEMINGLY COMING AROUND TO GFS IDEA OF PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN MUCH
LESS AMPLITUDE AND LESS RIDGE SUPPRESSION WITH NEXT RIDGE RIDING
TROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION
GIVEN DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES PERHAPS A BIT BETTER TOWARD END OF PERIOD AS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT COOL FRONT WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK DO SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT EXCESSIVE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT OF A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1058 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-290300-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1058 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 /958 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-290300-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1058 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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