Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION WAS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
GREATEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY MET WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH
WITH TIME AS OUTFLOWS FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS EXPAND THE AREA.
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL LIKELY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
GREATER FOCUS WILL BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE STORMS SHOULD FIRE
AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY.
WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES...GOOD MSTR INFLOW INTO ANY CONVECTION AND
SLOW MOVEMENT IN WEAK FLOW...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS MAY INCREASE IN
MANY AREAS. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION MAY LAY OUT FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AS PERSISTENCE CONVERGENT
ZONE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO LIGHT UP AS ENERGY APPROACHES. IF
CONVECTION SETS UP AS NAM 12Z RUN INDICATES...MAY NEED TO LOOK AT
HYDRO HEADLINES. WILL HAVE SCT POPS THROUGH 2Z IN SOUTHERN HALF TO
HANDLE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND THEN RIDE WITH CHC POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR HOW MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
RESPONDS TO ARRIVING ENERGY.

NO CHANGES MADE TO SUN/SUN NGT TIME FRAME. POTENTIAL FOR LEFTOVER
CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AS WELL AS COLD FRONT MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE TIMING OF SHORT
WAVE AT TIME OF ARRIVAL WILL HELP ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...BULK OF DYNAMICS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN REMOVED FRONT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY STILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW STILL IN PLACE. GRIDS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR THE MOMENT WITH RAMPING OF POPS INTO LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WILL EXTEND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
OR WITHOUT CONVECTION. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE STILL HEADING
TOWARDS 90 WITH DEWPTS STILL IN THE 70S. CONVECTION COULD CAUSE
ISSUES IN SOME AREAS AND REDUCE THE THREAT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT LET IT DROP OFF AND REISSUE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON THE
SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A NE CONUS UPPER TROUGH. A PERSISTENT
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NWD INTO THE
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE SETTING
UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY AFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE A QUICK
RETURN TO HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO NEAR 70F AND AFTN HIGHS NEAR
90F. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN WESTERLY FLOW ON TOP
OF THIS RIDGE MAY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL THINGS IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST FAVORABLE AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE FROM KFWA SOUTH WHERE MAX
HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND ISOLATED CELLS NOW POPPING FROM SOUTH OF
KANKAKEE ILLINOIS TOWARDS LIMA ON OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUP TO KFWA AFTER 19Z TO COVER WHAT SHOULD BE EXPANDING
AREA OF STORMS WITH TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
NOT QUITE AS CLEAR CUT AT KSBN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS PUTTING A
BIT OF A DAMPER ON HEATING. WILL MAINLY NEED TO WATCH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST THAT COULD MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON HERE.

NO CHANGES BEYOND 00Z WITH COMPLEX STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE PL&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
     INZ012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ015-016-024-
     025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1028 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

INZ012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-241430-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-
CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1028 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011 /928 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
THE COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING MONDAY...
BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ004>009-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-241430-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON
1028 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING MONDAY...
BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-241430-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
1028 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011 /928 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING MONDAY...
BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

OHZ016-232200-
PUTNAM OH-
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND EASTERN
PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEIPSIC...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
OTTAWA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BELMORE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4091 8412 4115 8412 4117 8387 4093 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 250DEG 10KT 4104 8392

MCS

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