Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
729 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

.AVIATION...
BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN BYPASSED NRN INDIANA TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ONGOING
TSTMS OVER NRN WI MOVG SE BUT APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY
APPROACH MARINE MODIFIED AIRMASS ALONG WRN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
STILL... SOME POTENTIAL THAT THESE STORMS OR OTHERS WHICH DVLP
ALONG WK CDFNT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO CONTD WITH CB IN TAFS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MOIST AIRMASS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND
LIMITED CLOUDINESS SHOULD AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...LOWER IN OUTLYING AREAS.
SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG CDFNT ATTM AND PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
INDIANA TUE MORNING SO HAVE CONTD WITH THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NNW DURING
THE DAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND NO CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
MOST OF THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR PERIOD REMAINS WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND HEAT HEADLINES.

ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 3500-4000 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES PUSHING 2 IN. ISOLATED CONVECTION
STARTING TO POP UP IN EASTERN CWA WHERE BETTER HEATING OCCURRED BUT
IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN LACK
OF DECENT FORCING MECHANISM AND LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. ALTHO HARD TO
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM GIVEN INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS ON ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS
OVERNIGHT. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THRU TOMORROW. THIS MAY PROVIDE BETTER
FOCUS FOR STORMS THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S SITUATION. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION
SO HARD TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN ANY ONE SOLUTION FOR COVERAGE AND
TIMING. KEPT WITH THINKING OF PRIOR GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH DRY FORECAST AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

IN RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS. WARM
NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOMORROW'S TEMPS
COULD BE COMPLICATED BY CLOUD SHIELD IF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DOES
MATERIALIZE. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORY FOR
TUES AND WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS. ALSO DECIDED TO PUSH BACK WATCH
UNTIL WEDNESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH LONG TERM
FORECASTER/SURROUNDING OFFICES. STILL THINK ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE MET TUES WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST A BIT AND
WARM UP CONTINUING. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID
70S SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE OVER 100 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH EASTWARD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ALTER TRAJECTORIES OF ANY DEVELOPING MCS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA...AND ALSO BRING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO THE REGION...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S ON WED AND THU. HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100-105 CAN BE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE THEN FLATTENS OUT AND ALLOWS SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL FEATURE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. DIFFUSE NATURE OF SFC
BOUNDARY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON HOW FAR
SOUTH NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL ACTUALLY GET SUGGESTS REMAINING WITH
A DRY FCST FOR NOW. A LITTLE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOUND IN DAYS 6
AND 7 WITH UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY AND ACTUALLY BRING
AN AIRMASS-CHANGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. GIVEN REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO ALONG WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES IN ADDING SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND NUDGE TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S.&&

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...OBERGFELL
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
821 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-200030-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
821 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 /721 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAT
INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 100 TUESDAY AND AROUND
105 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-200030-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
821 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHZ025-182315-
ALLEN OH-
645 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN ALLEN COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF FORT SHAWNEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FORT SHAWNEE AND LIMA...
  HUME...
  ROUSCULP AND YODER...
  WESTMINSTER...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4064 8387 4064 8410 4066 8411 4065 8421
      4069 8422 4069 8433 4068 8434 4068 8437
      4069 8439 4080 8433 4069 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 294DEG 20KT 4068 8422

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
736 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHZ001-002-004-005-190000-
DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-HENRY OH-WILLIAMS OH-
736 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN FULTON...
WILLIAMS...NORTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND HENRY COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
OHIO...

AT 726 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONTPELIER TO NAPOLEON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MONTPELIER...
  NAPOLEON...
  LIBERTY CENTER...
  STRYKER...
  WEST JEFFERSON AND COLTON...
  HALLOCK AND TEXAS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4117 8389 4158 8479 4170 8474 4170 8465
      4147 8388 4117 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 303DEG 21KT 4165 8465 4142 8416

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
804 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHZ001-002-004-005-190030-
DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-HENRY OH-WILLIAMS OH-
804 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON...EASTERN WILLIAMS...NORTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND
HENRY COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 756 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST UNITY TO
NAPOLEON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  NAPOLEON...ARCHBOLD AND MALINTA...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4117 8392 4153 8461 4169 8452 4138 8388
      4117 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 304DEG 9KT 4157 8446 4138 8412

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
907 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHZ005-016-190130-
HENRY OH-PUTNAM OH-
907 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD EXTREME EASTERN DEFIANCE...
HENRY AND NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NAPOLEON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MCCLURE...
  DESHLER...
  MALINTA AND ELERY...
  GRELTON...
  HAMLER...
  BELMORE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4110 8388 4132 8423 4136 8423 4148 8411
      4137 8388 4118 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 306DEG 19KT 4135 8409