Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.AVIATION /00 UTC TAFS/...
BRIEF RESPITE INVOF KSBN FOR COUPLE OF HOURS TIL MATURE/DECAYING
LEWP ACRS ECNTL IL/WCNTL IN MOVES IN 02-05 UTC TIMEFRAME. SUFCNT
MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG DOWNSTREAM OF COMPLEX/ACRS NRN IN AMID RICH
RESERVOIR OF LLVL THETA-E AIR WITH SFC DPS UPR 60S/LWR 70S IN
CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT SFC-8H FLOW...SUFCNT TO MAINTAIN SHRA/TEMPO
TSRA TIL APPROX 04 UTC KFWA/05 UTC KSBN. WETTED BL AND LTR APPROACH
OF MLVL DRY PUNCH/NOW ENTERING FAR WCNTL IL WL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
BR/STRATUS FORMATION IN MOIST/MIXED BL. RAPID MIXOUT ANTICIPATED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY WED BODES
WELL FOR FNTL FORCED TSRA ERLY AFTN AT KSBN/MID-LATE AFTN TIMING AT
KFWA...NEAR PARALLEL DEEP LYR SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTOR SUGGEST
STRONGER WIND GUST POTNL IN STORMS...THOUGH FINER DETAILS WRT
PARTICULAR POINT FCST/TIMING/GUST MAGNITUDE BYND CRNT FCST SCOPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STACKED/FILLING LOW WILL MEANDER EWD FROM NEAR NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
AFTN TO CENTRAL WI BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION.

WEAK AREA OF LOW LVL SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS ILLINOIS...PER 925/850
HPA AREA PROFILERS...SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROPAGATION NEWD INTO THE
FA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. IT IS THIS FEATURE...A WEAK CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED MID LVL IMPULSE OVER SRN IL...AND AN APPROACHING LEFTOVER
MCV OVER SE MO THAT SHOULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR LATE AFTN AND
EVE SCT CONVECTION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT A PROBLEM THIS GO
AROUND WITH LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGE OVERHEAD SUPPORTING SBCAPE/S
NEAR 4000 J/KG. MORNING 700 HPA CAP HAS BEEN NEARLY ERODED BY EXIT
OF EML AND SFC HEATING AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO PROGGED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WOLCOTT PROFILER SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW
FLOW AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE WEST...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS EAST. THIS HIGH INSTABILITY/LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS...WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT FROM PRECIP LOADING. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN SUCH A WARM/MOIST THERMAL
PROFILE. PWATS NEAR 1.7 INCHES...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...AND
EXPECTED SLOWER CELL MOVEMENT HINTS AT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS AND THE ISO SVR THREAT IN THE HWO.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WANE WITH TIME TONIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT RESIDING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FA.

LOWER CHC POPS FOR SHOWER/STORM WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM DRY SLOT BRIEFLY WORKS IN. THIS
POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MORNING SFC
HEATING/INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT/NUM
SHOWER/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE AS THE PRIMARY SFC TROUGH TRANSLATES
INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. STRONGER MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MUTICELLULAR CLUSTERS
AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING ANY
LINGERING AFFECTS FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION AND FOR A LESS
UNSTABLE LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT BEHIND TODAY/S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH-
LIKE FEATURE. COOLER THERMAL PROFILE AND SUSTAINABLE UPDRAFTS
SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...WHILE MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND POSSIBLE MULTICELL ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS A WIND
THREAT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FIRE AS STILL EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES UP
BTW 1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW...AS DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WI UPPER LOW ROTATES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
EAST CONUS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS ARE SHOWING GOOD
AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE CORRELATION/0.86 TO 0.90/ IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OF BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
CAVEAT IS FOR A SHORT WAVE TROF TO TOP THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DRY GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ABOVE
SOLUTION AND LACK OF SUPPORT AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OTHERWISE...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES WELL
OCCLUDED BY FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST PER 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE..

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025-221000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
602 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 /502 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO OHIO BY EVENING...WITH AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
816 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMILTON                41.53N  84.91W
06/21/2011                   STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD NEAR SR 427 AND CR 10

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101076

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
817 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARSAW                  41.24N  85.85W
06/21/2011                   KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101077

SC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
818 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

INZ006>009-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-220115-
BRANCH MI-DE KALB IN-HILLSDALE MI-LAGRANGE IN-NOBLE IN-ST. JOSEPH
MI-STEUBEN IN-WILLIAMS OH-
818 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN DE KALB...NORTHEASTERN
NOBLE...STEUBEN AND EASTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
AND HILLSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND SOUTHEASTERN ST.
JOSEPH AND BRANCH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND WILLIAMS
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 817 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ROME CITY TO ANGOLA TO WEST UNITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ANGOLA...
  HILLSDALE...
  PIONEER...
  FREMONT...
  READING...
  BRONSON AND QUINCY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4207 8436 4171 8436 4171 8439 4170 8440
      4162 8440 4161 8438 4152 8438 4148 8434
      4143 8434 4143 8541 4208 8530 4208 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 195DEG 18KT 4157 8525 4163 8494
          4162 8436

NG