Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...

OCCLUDED STACKED CYCLONE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD TOWARDS
THE FA TONIGHT...AND INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FA WILL ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE AND MID
LEVEL JET MAXIMA LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF NEARLY 60 KNOTS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...NOW ROUGHLY LINED UP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS OF 20Z.
DEFINITELY A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN POTENTIAL/FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION UNDER CIRRUS...AND FROM 200-400 0-1KM SRH VALUES
INVOF OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/CONVECTION OUTFLOW PER BACKED FLOW. STABLE
BUBBLE SHOWING UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE ACROSS NRN IL...WITH A
BOUNDARY SET UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THIS STABLE AIR
WILL LIKELY WORK IN BETWEEN FORCING FROM LEAD SHORTWAVES...AT LEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT A LULL IN THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI TRACKS NEWD AND THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENS/INTENSIFIES. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR
SVR WX TONIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX WITH
POTENTIAL LEWP/SQLN BYPASSES TO THE SOUTH GIVEN PROGGED ORIENTATION
OF MASS FIELDS AND CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. STORMS SO FAR
TODAY HAVE DROPPED BTW 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WITH
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...RESULTING LOW FFG/S...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...AND ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS ANTICIPATED DECIDED TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CWA WIDE THROUGH 08Z THUR. BEST CHANCES FOR
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
WITH CYCLONE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD...WITH DEFORMATION
RAIN/DRIZZLE/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
SE FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PARTIAL CLEARING
OCCURS WE COULD SEE A MARGINAL SVR EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH.  NO
CHANGES TO GRIDS/FCST BEYOND THURSDAY GIVEN MAIN FOCUS ON ONGOING
SEVERE WX. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF DRIER AND WARMER WX IS IN STORE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT FWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WORKS THROUGH. COVERED THIS WITH
AN IFR TEMPO GROUP. CONTINUED WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST AT SBN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS NRN IL STABLE BUBBLE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN. SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOWERING CIGS/VIS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AT BOTH FWA/SBN AS MISSOURI VALLEY CYCLONE
PROPAGATES NEWD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-
     020-022>027-032>034.

MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
459 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-262100-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
459 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 /359 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A GRISSOM INDIANA TO FORT WAYNE TO
DEFIANCE OHIO LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
FLOODING OF LOCAL RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-MIZ077-262100-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
459 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 /359 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISKS.
ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
FLOODING OF LOCAL RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-262100-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
459 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
ON THURSDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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