Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
901 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.AVIATION...
TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG STNRY FRONT OVER NW INDIANA AROUND 23Z AND ARE
PROPAGATING SLOWLY E-NE. ADDED TEMPO TSRA TO TAFS THROUGH THIS EVE.
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN BR. CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY WITH SCT AFTN
TSRA PSBL BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

.UPDATED...
SCT TSTMS INITIATED ALONG STNRY FRONT OVER NW INDIANA AROUND 23Z.
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN INTENSE STORMS. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACKBUILDING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...

COMPLEX ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS BEGINNIG TO SLIDE EAST WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OVER WEST. SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA. FIRST WAVE NOW MOVING
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WITH SECOND WAVE IN CENTRAL IL.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WI ALONG STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
WARM FRONT AND BEING REINFORCED BY LAKE BREEZE. SECOND AREA OF TSRA
IN IL DEVELOPING IN AREA OF RICH MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY.

18Z MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST WISCONSIN
STORM COULD STAY NORTH OF AREA BUT IF IT BUILDS SOUTH ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD IMPACT NORTHWEST. ANY STORMS IN IL COULD ALSO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH
QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS ANY STORMS. BULK
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AS 0-6KM BARELY REACHES 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE RISK FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND SLIGHT RISK COVERS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT EAST. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHWEST TO STAY WITHIN COLLABORATION
AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS UPSTREAM.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED POPS FOR THESE WAVES. SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR
TO TODAY AND DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY COULD SEE
CAPES APPROACH 2K TO 3K J/KG FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AGAIN. NO
STRONG FORCING SEEN OTHER THAN WEAK SHORT WAVES SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST CHARACTERIZED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ONE LAST
DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO EAST. CUT OFF UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CO WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
ENTER THE REGION ON FRI. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM AS WELL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
CANADA CURRENTLY BUT ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO
ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT AND KEPT GOING WX GRIDS.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN LINGERS WELL INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS SYSTEM HOVERS OVER REGION. SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT DRY
PERIODS BUT HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT. TEMP FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY AS WELL AS FRONT WILL LINGER OVER CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF LOWER 60S ESP WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS OVER AREA LIMITING INSOLATION. THEREFORE
DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES EXCEPT TO BUMP DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. BY
THE START OF THE WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING DETAILS OF UPPER
CUT OFF LOW MERGING WITH CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. 12Z GFS AND GEFS MUCH
FASTER EJECTING THIS LOW SEWD OUT OF THE REGION AND END PRECIP
CHANCES BY MON EVENING. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS THE LOW BACK
NORTH OVER REGION...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE END OF
THE PERIOD. GIVEN LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY...LEFT END OF PERIOD DRY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORM
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...OBERGFELL
AVIATION/UPDATE...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
501 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-120915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
501 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 /401 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-120915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
501 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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