Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

19Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR DAVENPORT IOWA...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO OUR FAR SW. THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF INTEREST ALOFT IS A SOMEWHAT SHEARED OUT MID LVL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM INVOF OF EASTERN IA/SOUTHWEST WI. MODEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...PER Q-VECTOR PROGS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH REDUCED CPD/S
NE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OVER THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
JUST NE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE 85H FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR PEA SIZE HAIL FROM SOME OF THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CORES ALONG THIS INITIAL LINE. EXPECT THIS SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING A
BIT AS IT SHIFTS INTO MORE STABLE AIR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM
ACROSS CENTRAL IL WHERE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S HAS ALLOWED FOR AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC LOW/FRONT...A FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE...AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT. WEAK CAP CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO WORK EWD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
INDIANA BTW 22-02Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BYPASS THE FA JUST TO THE
SOUTH...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR FAR SW IN THE HWO. ALSO CONTINUED WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST SOUTH...00-03Z GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MISS TO THE SOUTH.
ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA NEAR THE SINKING SFC LOW/FRONT.

HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WX LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS AND DRIZZLE
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WILL MIX OUT TO
SCT/BKN CU PER CU RULE AND NAM/GFS SOUNDING PROGS. DEEPER MIXING AND
LESS CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING NEAR 70F. BACKGROUND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW SHOULD EVEN LIMIT THE EWD PUSH OF THE LAKE BREEZE ALLOWING
AREAS FROM MICHIGAN CITY TO BENTON HARBOR TO REACH TO NEAR 70F.
MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RESPONSE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS AS IF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST
OF THE FA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTD LARGELY STATUS QUO FOR AN ADDNL MODEL
SEQUENCE. HOWEVER SOME MODIFICATIONS WRT EARLY PDS WITH SLOWER
RETURN OF HIR LLVL THETA-E RESERVOIR ACRS WRN/SWRN CWA IN LIGHT OF
DEEPER BACKED FLOW WITH RIDGING ACRS GRTLKS TO DOMINATE AS
CYCLOLYTIC DECAY ENSUES AS NRN IL SHORTWAVE AMID DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENCY. IN THIS REGARD HAVE ADJUSTMENTS WITH NERN CWA LKLY TOO
FAR REMOVED FM NOSE OF LLJ/THETA-E GRADIENT UNTIL MON EVE/NIGHT.
ADNL CHCS TUE WITH ECMWF CONSISTENT WRT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TOPPING
RIDGE. SIDED WITH CONSISTENCY AS WELL ON WED WITH CORE OF SFC-MLVL
RIDGE/CAPPING INVERSION TO PRECLUDE NEEDED TSRA MENTION. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MIDWEEK WITH LATEST GFS TOO STRONG/EAST AND ECWMF
AT ODDS WITH A REXED SRN SOLN OF ERLY WEEKS INTMTN RGN CYCLONE
EJECTION. RIGHT NOW FAVOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVE A NOD LOOKING BACK TO
06/12 ECMWF AND SOME LATEST GEFS SOLNS THAT POINT TO A DAMPENING
NORTHEAST EJECTION. WITH UNCERTAINTY HAVE FEW CHNGS IN LATER PDS
OTHER THAN CONTD WARM AOA HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE MOS TUE AND FURTHER
BUMP WED IN CORE OF RIDGE/BUILDING HGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY FWA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RENEWED
CONVECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL AND WEST-CENTRAL IN THIS AFTN GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
NEAR THE APPROACHING WEAK SFC REFLECTION/FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CLIP FWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO CONTINUED WITH A VCSH
MENTION BTW 23-03Z. OTHERWISE...TOP DOWN SATURATION PROCESS ONGOING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...MID LEVEL DRYING...AND
DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHOULD
ALLOW ANY LINGERING IFR OR MVFR STRATUS TO MIX OUT ON SUNDAY. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AT SBN BY MID MORNING AND FWA BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
244 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025-081845-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
244 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011 /144 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KNOX TO
PORTLAND LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
INDIANA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KNOX TO PORTLAND LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
318 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

INZ003-012>015-022>025-032-033-071945-
BLACKFORD IN-CASS IN-FULTON IN-GRANT IN-HUNTINGTON IN-LA PORTE
IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-PULASKI IN-STARKE IN-WABASH IN-
318 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

AT 211 PM CDT/311 PM EDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LA
CROSSE TO SWAYZEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  KNOX...
  MARION...
  ROCHESTER...
  WABASH...
  SWEETSER...
  DENVER AND CULVER...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4148 8654 4053 8537 4046 8584 4057 8587
      4057 8598 4135 8695 4142 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 259DEG 19KT 4136 8681 4055 8580

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

INZ003-004-012-014>016-023>026-032>034-072015-
BLACKFORD IN-FULTON IN-GRANT IN-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-LA
PORTE IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-WABASH IN-WELLS
IN-
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

AT 248 PM CDT/348 PM EDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WANATAH TO REDKEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  NORTH MANCHESTER...PLYMOUTH AND PORTLAND...
  AKRON...MONTPELIER AND HAMLET...
  PENNVILLE AND KINGSFORD HEIGHTS...
  ANDREWS...KOONTZ LAKE AND ARGOS...
  UNION MILLS...CLAYPOOL

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4039 8522 4039 8526 4145 8695 4152 8695
      4158 8657 4063 8507 4059 8507 4059 8500
      4046 8480 4036 8480 4031 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 259DEG 19KT 4147 8683 4039 8511

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
429 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

INZ003-004-012-014-072100-
LA PORTE IN-MARSHALL IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
329 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGSFORD HEIGHTS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF LA
PORTE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WALKERTON AND KOONTZ LAKE...
  NORTH LIBERTY AND TYNER...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING/1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING/ FOR NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA.

LAT...LON 4159 8641 4140 8640 4143 8671 4153 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 266DEG 18KT 4148 8663