Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
806 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. SFC LOW
WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA TONIGHT...WITH LIFTING OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
NORTH INTO THE FA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND LL FORCING WILL SUPPORT SHRA AND TS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR RANGE WITH SCT IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH LL DRYING AND A
TREND TO VFR CIGS/VIS BY SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON.

STRONGER TS CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011/

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
POTENT BUT WKNG MCV OVR NW IN WILL CONT EWD THROUGH MID AFTN
W/ATTENDANT HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD SPREADING EWD INTO NW OH
SHORTLY. HWVR ATTN FOCUSED ON SHARP MID LVL TROUGH OVR SD AND
ATTENDANT SFC WAVE OVR WRN MO. STG DESTABILIZATION CONTS ACRS MUCH
OF MO THIS AFTN E OF SFC WAVE AND W/RAMPING LLJ TIED TO EJECTING ML
TROUGH XPCD RENEWED CONVN TO FIRE BOTH NORTH OF SFC WMFNT EXTENDING
FM CNTRL MO EWD INTO SRN IN AND ALG CDFNT TRAILING SWWD INTO ERN OK
BY MID AFTN. HRRR SIMILAR TO 12Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE DVLPG VIGOROUS
CONVN ACRS NRN IL TWD 21-22Z AND SHIFTING IT RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE
CWA BTWN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVRTOP SATURATED GROUND...HWVR GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FLW ASSOCD OUT
AHD OF OPENING AND NEWD ACCELERATING ML TROUGH ...RAPID MOVEMENT OF
ADDNL PCPN NEGATES A GREATER POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK AND ASSOCD
HEADLINES WHICH ARE BTR SUITED FOR CONSIDERATION IN DYS3-4. SVR RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL GIVEN CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED DEEP/STABLE BUBBLE
EXTNDG WWD THROUGH CNTRL IL. HWVR WMFNTL BNDRY BULGING RAPIDLY NEWD
THROUGH NRN MO AHD OF EJECTING MID LVL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC
WAVE. ELEVATED CAPE IN PRESENCE OF INCREASING HGT FALLS AND RAMPING
ASCENT SHLD YIELD MODERATELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS YET XPC MAINLY
SUB-SVR HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGEST CORES. OTHERWISE XPC LWR BNDRY LYR
WILL REMAIN COLD AND STABLE W/WIND DAMAGE THREAT UNLIKELY.

OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT SWEEPS EWD LT TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDY
CONDS XPCD SAT AIDED BY INSOLATION AND LAGGING LL CAA. GIVEN DEPTH
OF POTENTIAL MIXING AND SUNSHINE...BUMPED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ESP IN LIGHT OF 12Z MET MOS JUMP WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/WARMER
MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

NXT UPSTREAM SW DRIVING THROUGH THE EPAC THIS AFTN WILL DRIVE INLAND
TONIGHT AND DIG FURTHER ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES SAT. BACKING FLW
DOWNSTREAM AND CONTD BUBBLE OF RICH THETA-E SOUTH OF STALLED SFC
FNTL ZONE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. ALOT OF
SPREAD SEEN IN 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE ON PLACEMENT OF SFC BNDRY AND
GENERALLY FVRD PLACEMENT ALG/NR OH RVR. ADDED SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL
BASED ON HIGHRES GUIDANCE BUT THAT MAY BE FUTILE GIVEN GENERAL MODEL
STRUGGLES ON SFC BNDRY EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT LAST WEEK AND CONTD
DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY OF SW DISTURBANCES. IN THE LEAST MID
RANGE POPS STILL WARRANTED FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROFS EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN
TROF WEST TROF AND MOVE NORTHEAST.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING THIS PATTERN MORE ACTIVE WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE
COMBINES WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE RAINFALL. FLOOD WATCHES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ESF PRODUCT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO OUTLINE HAZARDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1020 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-240230-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1020 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011 /920 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE
SOME FLOODING ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
TIFFIN AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF FLOODING NEXT WEEK DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SPOTTER REPORTS WILL
BE APPRECIATED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-240230-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1020 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1001 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

INZ004-005-MIZ078-230215-
CASS MI-ELKHART IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
1001 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

AT 956 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GULIVOIRE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DUNLAP...ELKHART AND SIMONTON LAKE...
  OSCEOLA AND JIMTOWN...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4161 8571 4149 8627 4149 8633 4154 8636
      4181 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 244DEG 50KT 4155 8622

JC

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