Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Northern Indiana

981 
WWUS53 KIWX 212142
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
542 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

INC049-212151-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-110621T2200Z/
FULTON IN-
542 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA IS CANCELLED...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT AND 
NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTHERN INDIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 8614 4134 8581 4114 8592 4113 8598
      4118 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 198DEG 23KT 4120 8601

$$

INC085-099-212200-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-110621T2200Z/
MARSHALL IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
542 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN KOSCIUSKO AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR MENTONE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  BOURBON...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
ATWOOD...ETNA GREEN...HOFFMAN LAKE...MONOQUET...CLUNETTE AND
LEESBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES
NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTHERN INDIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 8614 4134 8581 4114 8592 4113 8598
      4118 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 198DEG 23KT 4120 8601
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

319 
WWUS53 KIWX 212202
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

INC085-099-212212-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-110621T2200Z/
MARSHALL IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
602 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN KOSCIUSKO AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 601 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTHERN INDIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 8614 4134 8581 4114 8592 4113 8598
      4118 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 198DEG 23KT 4121 8601

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STACKED/FILLING LOW WILL MEANDER EWD FROM NEAR NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
AFTN TO CENTRAL WI BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION.

WEAK AREA OF LOW LVL SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS ILLINOIS...PER 925/850
HPA AREA PROFILERS...SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROPAGATION NEWD INTO THE
FA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. IT IS THIS FEATURE...A WEAK CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED MID LVL IMPULSE OVER SRN IL...AND AN APPROACHING LEFTOVER
MCV OVER SE MO THAT SHOULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR LATE AFTN AND
EVE SCT CONVECTION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT A PROBLEM THIS GO
AROUND WITH LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGE OVERHEAD SUPPORTING SBCAPE/S
NEAR 4000 J/KG. MORNING 700 HPA CAP HAS BEEN NEARLY ERODED BY EXIT
OF EML AND SFC HEATING AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO PROGGED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WOLCOTT PROFILER SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW
FLOW AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE WEST...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS EAST. THIS HIGH INSTABILITY/LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS...WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT FROM PRECIP LOADING. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN SUCH A WARM/MOIST THERMAL
PROFILE. PWATS NEAR 1.7 INCHES...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...AND
EXPECTED SLOWER CELL MOVEMENT HINTS AT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS AND THE ISO SVR THREAT IN THE HWO.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WANE WITH TIME TONIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT RESIDING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FA.

LOWER CHC POPS FOR SHOWER/STORM WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM DRY SLOT BRIEFLY WORKS IN. THIS
POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MORNING SFC
HEATING/INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT/NUM
SHOWER/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE AS THE PRIMARY SFC TROUGH TRANSLATES
INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. STRONGER MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MUTICELLULAR CLUSTERS
AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING ANY
LINGERING AFFECTS FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION AND FOR A LESS
UNSTABLE LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT BEHIND TODAY/S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH-
LIKE FEATURE. COOLER THERMAL PROFILE AND SUSTAINABLE UPDRAFTS
SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...WHILE MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND POSSIBLE MULTICELL ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS A WIND
THREAT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FIRE AS STILL EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES UP
BTW 1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW...AS DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WI UPPER LOW ROTATES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
EAST CONUS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS ARE SHOWING GOOD
AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE CORRELATION/0.86 TO 0.90/ IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OF BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
CAVEAT IS FOR A SHORT WAVE TROF TO TOP THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DRY GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ABOVE
SOLUTION AND LACK OF SUPPORT AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OTHERWISE...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES WELL
OCCLUDED BY FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST PER 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE..

&&

.AVIATION... / 18Z TAFS /

CONVERGENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MID MS VALLEY CONVECTION WILL
SLIDE EWD INTO THE FA THIS AFTN...LIKELY SUPPORTING SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AT THE TERMINALS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE THETA-E
PLUME. ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS. CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT BOTH FWA AND SBN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. OPTED FOR A
CONTINUATION OF AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FCST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE FA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT IN A DECENTLY
MIXED WARM SECTOR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025-221000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
602 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 /502 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO OHIO BY EVENING...WITH AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX