River Flood Watch 53, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD MOVED
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 AM THIS MORNING OF 1.00 TO 1.50 HAVE BEEN REPORTED
FROM NUMEROUS MESONET OBSERVING STATIONS. MANY RIVERS HAVE BEEN
RISING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND SOME RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY. FOR NOW
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING...SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOULD END TODAY AFTER A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT PASSES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH DELTA T VALUES OF 10 TO 14 AND A 280
FETCH...SO HAVE JUST LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER NE CANADA ON
SATURDAY. NAM HAS HAD GOOD RUN-RUN CONTINUITY ON THIS FEATURE
SUGGESTING LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV SHOULD LOWER INVERSION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LEFT THIS PERIOD DRY... THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR DAYS4-7 (SUN-WED) REMAINS THE TRACK/TIMING OF SWRN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW AS IT EJECTS NE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY WITH
GEM THE OUTLIER FCSTG SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT FASTER AND PHASE WITH
NRN STREAM BY TUE MORNING...WHILE REMAINDER SUGGEST LOW WILL STILL
BE CLOSED OFF OVER THE TX PHDL/WRN OK AT THAT TIME. BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODELS TRENDED POPS DOWN IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME.
TIMING/EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WRT EJECTING OF
SWRN LOW BECOME RATHER LARGE BY WED...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHC MENTION OF PRECIP WARRANTED. THICKNESS/FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATED CWA WILL BE CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW LINE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SO MAINTAINED RAIN AND/OR SNOW PTYPE IN FCST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY ON LOWS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVIER RAIN HAD SHIFTED WELL SOUTHEAST OF FWA...BUT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH NWRN IN.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.  IFR OR LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER/JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
458 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
458 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011 /358 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RUN-OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE REQUESTED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-161000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
458 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX