River Flood Watch 42, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
435 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...
STACKED/DEEP CYCLONE OVR NE MO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD NR TERM BFR
OPENING AND ACCELERATING NEWD INTO CANADA AHD OF NXT UPSTREAM SW
TROUGH CRESTING WRN RIDGE THIS MORNING.

XPC ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DVLP ALG ERN
PERIPHERY OF MID LVL CIRC AND CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS ACRS SE IL/SW
IN...YET ESP THIS AFTN W/DIURNAL HEATING WHICH WHILE LIMITED SHLD
LEAD TO A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE BNDRY LYR...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE SE
HALF OF CWA. TEMPTED TO REISSUE A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN HOW WIDESPREAD
HVY RAIN WAS YDA BUT W/LTL CONSENSUS SEEN IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
CONV POTENTIAL. WOULD XPC OUTFLW BUBBLE AND CONTD ASCENT OVR IT WILL
SQUASH SIG AIRMASS RECOVERY THIS AFTN W/LTL SVR RISK ANTICIPATED AND
AS SUCH A TEMPERED HVY RAIN RISK EXISTS SO WILL DEFER TO DAYSHIFT
FOR FINAL DECISION UNLESS CONVN DVLPG UPSTREAM MAKES A DRAMATIC
UPTURN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE GIVEN CIRC ALOFT OPENS AND ACCELERATES NEWD TONIGHT WILL CUT
W-E POP GRADIENT AND DROP FRI AM PCPN MENTION. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PD
WELL BLO NORMAL OWING TO DEEP CYCLONE PASSING OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY
ROBUST CAA FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR ONE DAY FRI BFR A HUGE WARMUP
COMMENCES TO START THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE REGION WITH
EASTERN NOAM RIDGING EXPECTED IN RESPONSE. BROAD PATTERN IDEAS ARE
CLEAR IN FORECAST MODELS AND TELECONNECTION TRENDS...IT/S THE FINER
DETAILS THAT STILL REMAIN MUDDLED AS SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SPEED
MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL IN SUPPORT OF STAUNCH RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY THROUGH MON...WITH A POTENT LARGE SCALE WAVE STILL PROGGED TO
EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES BY TUES...SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FA IN THIS PERIOD. IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF
RIDGING PROGGED BY ALL MAJOR GUIDANCE WITH H5 AT 5940 M....WHICH
SEEMS VERY STRONG FOR THE SEASON AS HIGHLIGHTED BY GFS ANOMALIES
SUPPORTING 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS.
HENCE WILL NOT RULE OUT COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS GIVEN ACTIVE SW FLOW LOADED WITH
MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...A SOLUTION THAT FITS BEST WITH THE GFS AND
MEAN GEFS.

SAT-WED...RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD...WITH A POSSIBLE LEAD WAA
WAVE SUPPORTING A ROUND OF SHOWER/TS SAT...IN A POS THETA-E ADV
REGIME...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED/PROGGED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF IMPULSE AND LL
FORCING MATERIALIZES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
TUES-TUES NIGHT AS A STRONG IMPULSE EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING WEST. CERTAINLY WOULD
EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION GIVEN THE VERY STAUNCH CAPPING EXPECTED IN PER THE PROGGED
RIDGE. AS STATED ABOVE...STILL LEARY OF THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL
UPPER FLOW MAXIMA EXITING THE PAC REGION AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
DEGREE OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGING/WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
DEPTH/POSITION....WITH RIDGE POSITION CONTINUING TO BE ADJUSTED IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. DID ADD POPS ON TUES GIVEN SIGNALS FOR A STRONG
RIDGE SQUELCHING IMPULSE/COLD FRONT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO
STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. HENCE RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH WED IN THE SOUTH FOR THIS. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD INADV OF STACKED/DEEP
CYCLONE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WRN IL. DRY SLOT CURLING UP ERN SIDE
OF SHARP MID LVL TROUGH FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND BEGINNING TO BUBBLE
ACRS SE IL/SW IN AND XPC THIS WILL PICK UP STEAM AFT SUNRISE W/AT
LEAST WK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION XCPD. SOME IMPROVEMENT XPCD AT
KFWA TDA GIVEN DEEPER MIXING AHD OF SFC CYCLONE THERE LTR THIS
MORNING BUT NONE AT KSBN W/MARINE LYR WRAPPING IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...T

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
439 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-270845-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
439 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 /339 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.
IN ADDITION...AREAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS. FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-MIZ077-270845-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
439 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 /339 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.
IN ADDITION...AREAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS. FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-270845-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
439 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
847 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLEASANT LAKE           41.58N  85.02W
05/26/2011  M1.77 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            22 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100924

FISHER