River Flood Watch 20, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
725 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.AVIATION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS ILLINOIS NEAR
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THIS LOW
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WIND AND LIGHT SHRA WAS HELPING TO KEEP LOW CIGS LOCKED IN.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF KFWA AND WELL SOUTH OF KSBN. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING OVER TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HELP GENERATE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN IS
PRIMARY CONCERN AT TAF SITES WITH THESE STORMS IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
MAIN COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 05Z WITH LINE OF STRONG STORMS
ALONG IT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS WELL AT
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VIS UNTIL
MIXING OCCURS NEAR CONVECTION. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LOW
CIGS AND VIS BACK TO COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SLOWLY RISING CIGS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONV INITIATION IMMINENT INVOF OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE OVR WRN/CNTRL
MO. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND CONTS TO
DESTABILIZE FURTHER W/ADDNL DVLPMNT XPCD ALG NWD RTNG WMFNTL BNDRY
AFT 21Z COINCIDENT W/NOCTURNAL LLJ RAMP. MOST OBVIOUS CONCERN IS HOW
FAR NORTH WMFNT MIXES W/HIGHRES MODEL PLACEMENT QUITE CONCERNING
ALG/SOUTH OF A MARION TO LIMA LINE TWD MID EVENING AS 0-1 SRH NR 400
AND MIXED LYR CAPES NR 1500 SUGGEST SIG RISK FOR TORNADOES SHLD CONV
MODE YIELD A WINDOW OF DISCRETE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
GREATER HAIL/WIND RISK EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH NRN IN/NW OH
OVERTOP SHALLOW/COLD BNDRY LYR IN ASSOCN/W LIKELY UPSCALE GROWTH OF
MO CONV SEED THIS AFTN.

REGARDLESS SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT CDFNT CLR ERN PORTION OF CWA BY 09Z
W/STG CAA FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. WILL GENERALLY SIDE W/COLDER MOS
TEMPS GIVEN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FOLLOWING IN INTENSE CAA WING WED AND
SHADE SLIGHTLY LWR WED NIGHT AS SOME CLD EROSION SHLD OCCUR LATE AS
SFC RIDGE BLDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FCST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING A SEASONABLY COOL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WEAK GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NE WITH TEMPS 50-55F. QUIET WX IS
SHORT-LIVED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLNS AS TO DEGREE OF
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW BUT CONSENSUS NOW FAVORS A DEEPER LOW WITH A
NE TRACK TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SWING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY TO FOLLOW
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BEFORE STALLING OUT.
LATEST GFS BRINGS DEEPER SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES
FRONT DOWN TO OH VALLEY AND ALLOWS FOR WEAK SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA WHILE 00Z ECMWF OFFERED A WEAKER SOLN AND KEEPS FRONT HUNG
UP OVER OUR AREA WHILE BRINGING ADDL FRONTAL WAVES RIDING UP ALONG
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINLY...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES DAYS 5-7 AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS DAYS 5-6 BEFORE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND SETS THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY
DAY 7...ALTHOUGH WILL JUST TREND TOWARD L80S OFFERED BY HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS ALG COLD SIDE OF STOUT WMFNTL BNDRY DRAPED
THROUGH CNTRL IL/SRN IN WILL ESSENTIALLY GO NOWHERE THIS PD AS
INTENSE SFC LOW OVR CNTRL MO THIS AFTN EJECTS ENE OVERNIGHT YET
STAYS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. STG ERLY GRADIENT THIS AFTN WILL
SLOWLY VEER BFR SHIFTING SW AFT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...LASHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ020-022>027-032>034-OHZ024-025-201000-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
652 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. ANY TORNADO THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MAKE SURE YOU KEEP A WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT OR HAVE SOME
NOTIFICATION METHOD TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU GO TO BED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ008-009-012>018-OHZ004-005-015-016-201000-
NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...
GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA
652 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 /552 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL SIZE MAY EXCEED AN INCH AND
A HALF IN DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

MAKE SURE YOU KEEP A WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT OR HAVE SOME
NOTIFICATION METHOD TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU GO TO BED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003>007-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-201000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-BERRIEN-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...
MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD
652 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 /552 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCED ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-201000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
652 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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