Alert archive / Ohio / River Flood Watches in 2011

River Flood Watch 16, NWS Northern Indiana

February 28, 2011Defiance County, Henry County, Ohio

NWS Northern Indiana issued this river flood watch at Feb 28, 2011, 11:06 AM EST for Defiance County, Henry County, Ohio. It took effect at Feb 28, 2011, 8:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Feb 28, 2011, 11:06 AM EST (16:06 UTC)
In effect from: Feb 28, 2011, 8:00 PM EST
Expired: Feb 28, 2011, 3:21 PM EST
In force
Issued by: NWS Northern Indiana
Flood severity: None

Counties Defiance County, OH, Henry County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Maumee River near Defiance (DEFO1).

Action stage: 8 ft
Minor stage: 10 ft
Moderate stage: 15 ft
Major stage: 20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood watch went out at Feb 28, 6:53 AM EST, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 6:53 AM EST, 4 hours 13 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA HAS QUICKLY SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SOME IFR
AND MVFR CIGS PERSIST IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH HAS CLEARED THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERING LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS AT KFWA SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST AT KSBN THIS MORNING. SOME NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECENT
RAINFALL...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...DOES POSE SOME PATCHY
FOG QUESTIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP VSBYS
UNRESTRICTED WITH HYDROLAPSE DATA LOOKING UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

POTENT FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER OK WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT EAST TODAY...WITH ALL ASSOCIATED LL ADJUSTMENT PASSING SOUTH
OF THE FA. SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE
MIDWEST...WITH MIXED PRECIP BEING REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS PROFILES COOL. OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND FRONT SIDE JET
ORIENTATION WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS SYSTEM EAST OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH A FAST END TO ONGOING PRECIP. MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM
DOWNSTATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN EASTERN SHIFT OF THE
STRONGEST LL FORCING WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINING OVER THE FA.
THE TRANSITION TO FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES.

TODAY...HAVE TAILORED THE FA TO INCLUDE A FAST EXIT OF PRECIP...WITH
LL DRYING SUPPORTING SOME SUN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS /AS INDICATED IN H85 T FALLS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES C/
WILL SUPPORT A QUELLED DIURNAL T CURVE WITH A SLIGHT RISE IN T/S
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY T/S WILL HOVER IN THE
LOWER 30S. FAST MOVING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SINK OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH A STRONGLY DECOUPLED BL WILL SUPPORT T/S FALLS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS.

TUES...FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
INCREASES LL WIND FIELD WITH CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG INSOLATION
WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER DEEP MIXING GIVEN A DEPLETED SNOW PACK.
NAM/GFS BUFR MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST BELOW H9...AND WITH WEAK WAA
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PER THE ADVECTING UPPER
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LL TROUGH. PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED
ISALLOBARIC WIND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LL MIXING HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. TREND
OVER PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TOWARD AN ASSOCIATED STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL CANADA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH ALLOWS A FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS OF 130 KNOTS AT 300 HPA DO SUPPORT STRENGTH OF THIS EASTERN
PACIFIC JET AND HAVE STEERED FORECAST TOWARD STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. OVERALL RESULT WAS JUST MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PROSPECTS FOR ANY
PRECIP STILL LOOKING TRACE AT BEST DUE TO VERY SHALLOW BASED
MOISTURE. TREND TO A MORE WELL DEVELOPED NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPSTREAM RIDGE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE RESIDENCE TIME OF
SHALLOW COLD AIR INTO THURSDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION STILL LOOKS TO GET GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT
THAT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION UNDER THIS WAA REGIME WILL
LIMIT SFC TEMP RISES...AND SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ALSO NOT LIKELY TO
ALLOW FOR MUCH MIXING TO THE SFC. THUS...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WHERE THIS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE
LONGER.

FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS AND
WEATHER WITH LATEST SET OF 00Z GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SUPPRESSION OF CENTRAL
CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN RIDGE AND PROVIDE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH PERHAPS SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES TO CONTEND
WITH MAINLY AT ONSET DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.
HOWEVER...LIQUID STILL APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DWINDLES TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
LEAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. PRECIP TYPE BECOMES MORE MUDDLED BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM OF NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FAIRLY SHARP DOWNSTREAM BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR EXTENDED PRECIP
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT FLAVOR OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCES OF RAIN CHANGING TO CHANCES OF SNOW BY
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS MORE OF A CUT OFF
SOLUTION WITH THE DIGGING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS LOWER
MS RVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS GIVEN SOME SUPPORT FROM 00Z
CANADIAN...WHILE 00Z GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS EVOLUTION HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO POPS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN FOCUSING A PERIOD FOR HIGHER 12
HOUR POPS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 6:08 AM EST, 4 hours 58 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
608 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-011115-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
608 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 /508 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW AND RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30.

A THREAT OF LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON SOME AREA RIVERS THIS WEEK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY OBSERVED FLOODING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-011115-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
608 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 28, 7:35 AM EST, 3 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
735 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N NORTH WEBSTER       41.36N  85.70W
02/28/2011  M1.02 INCH       KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS OFFICE

            STORM TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100543

CEO

Local storm report, Feb 28, 8:00 AM EST, 3 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
800 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 AM     FLOOD            HUNTINGTON              40.88N  85.50W
02/28/2011                   HUNTINGTON         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING COUNTY ROADS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100544

CEO

Local storm report, Feb 28, 8:05 AM EST, 3 hours 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
805 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 AM     FLOOD            MARION                  40.56N  85.66W
02/28/2011                   GRANT              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING ON COUNTY ROADS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100545

CEO

Local storm report, Feb 28, 9:42 AM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
942 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLOOD            MISHAWAKA               41.66N  86.16W
02/28/2011                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SR 23 AT HICKORY ROAD IS DOWN TO ONE LANE DUE TO
            FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100546

CEO

Local storm report, Feb 28, 9:52 AM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
952 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLOOD            PORTLAND                40.43N  84.98W
02/28/2011                   JAY                IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            US27 CLOSED DOWNTOWN DUE TO FLOODING. SEVERAL OTHER
            ROADS ARE FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100547

CEO

Local storm report, Feb 28, 10:14 AM EST, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1014 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     FLOOD            VAN WERT                40.87N  84.58W
02/28/2011                   VAN WERT           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 COUNTY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 1.49 IN OF RAIN
            STORM TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100548

CEO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 27, 7:03 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Noble	27 min
Feb 27, 9:36 PM EST	River Flood Watch	IWX	Allen	18 hr
Feb 27, 9:39 PM EST	River Flood Watch	IWX	Cass, Miami, Wabash	20 hr
Feb 27, 11:54 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	IWX	Adams, Blackford, Grant, Huntington, Jay, Wells	6 hr
Feb 28, 1:08 AM EST	Areal Flood Warning	IWX	Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, Grant, Huntington and 5 more	12 hr
Feb 28, 1:19 AM EST	Winter Weather Advisory	IWX		3 hr
Feb 28, 4:43 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Huntington, Wells	12 days
Feb 28, 4:43 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Adams, Wells	11 days
Feb 28, 7:52 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Cass, Miami, Wabash	14 hr
Feb 28, 8:33 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Adams, Allen	11 days
Feb 28, 9:20 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Blackford, Huntington, Jay, Wabash, Wells	4 days
Feb 28, 10:03 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Grant, Miami, Wabash	56 hr
Feb 28, 3:54 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Allen	9 days
Feb 28, 4:52 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Allen	7 days
Feb 28, 4:55 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Saint Joseph, Starke	42 hr
Feb 27, 7:00 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Defiance	30 min
Feb 27, 7:32 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Henry	13 min
Feb 27, 9:18 PM EST	River Flood Watch	IWX	Henry	19 hr
Feb 28, 10:20 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Allen, Paulding, Putnam	8 days
Feb 28, 10:20 AM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Putnam	8 days
Feb 28, 11:06 AM EST	River Flood Watch	IWX	Defiance	5 hr
Feb 28, 1:47 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Defiance, Fulton, Williams	15 days
Feb 28, 3:23 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Defiance, Henry	11 days
Feb 28, 3:45 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Defiance	4 days
Feb 28, 3:59 PM EST	River Flood Warning	IWX	Henry	6 days

Nearby

River Flood Watches in Ohio, 2011 Every river flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.