Alert archive / Indiana / Flood Watches in 2011
Flood Watch 1, NWS Northern Indiana
NWS Northern Indiana issued this flood watch at Feb 27, 2011, 4:53 AM EST for 4 counties in Michigan; 21 counties in Indiana; 8 counties in Ohio. It took effect at Feb 28, 2011, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 27, 2011, 4:53 AM EST (09:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 28, 2011, 12:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 28, 2011, 4:25 AM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Northern Indiana
All 33 counties
Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 233 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 562 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 102 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 290 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
846 WGUS63 KIWX 270953 FFAIWX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 453 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 ...INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH CONTAINS ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENCY WILL BE RELEASED AS HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE WITH ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMFLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCESS RUNOFF THAT WILL LIKELY FLOOD DITCHES...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FLOOD PRONE BASEMENTS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY ALSO FLOOD. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL THEN LIKELY COMMENCE EARLY THIS WEEK. THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEGREE OF FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED IN THE WABASH AND MAUMEE VALLEYS. TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW TO MINIMIZE FLOOD RELATED DAMAGES. INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-271800- /O.CAN.KIWX.FF.A.0001.110228T0500Z-110228T2000Z/ /O.NEW.KIWX.FA.A.0001.110228T0500Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 453 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 /353 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/ ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... ...THIS REPLACES THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT VALUES TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ JC
5 follow-up statements
889 WGUS63 KIWX 271729 FFAIWX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 ...INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH CONTAINS ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENCY WILL BE RELEASED AS HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE WITH ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMFLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCESS RUNOFF THAT WILL LIKELY FLOOD DITCHES...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FLOOD PRONE BASEMENTS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY ALSO FLOOD. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL THEN LIKELY COMMENCE EARLY THIS WEEK. THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEGREE OF FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED IN THE WABASH AND MAUMEE VALLEYS. TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW TO MINIMIZE FLOOD RELATED DAMAGES. INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-280130- /O.CON.KIWX.FA.A.0001.110228T0500Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 /1129 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/ ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB... ELKHART...FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO... LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...PULASKI...ST. JOSEPH IN...STARKE...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN...BRANCH...CASS MI... HILLSDALE AND ST. JOSEPH MI. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH... DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS. * FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
407 WGUS63 KIWX 272107 FFAIWX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 407 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 ...HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH CONTAINS ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENCY WILL BE RELEASED AS HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATURATED SOIL IN PLACE WITH ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMFLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCESS RUNOFF THAT WILL LIKELY FLOOD DITCHES...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FLOOD PRONE BASEMENTS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY ALSO FLOOD. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL THEN LIKELY COMMENCE EARLY THIS WEEK. THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEGREE OF FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE WABASH AND MAUMEE VALLEYS. TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW TO MINIMIZE FLOOD RELATED DAMAGES. INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-280515- /O.CON.KIWX.FA.A.0001.110228T0500Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 407 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 /307 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/ ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB... ELKHART...FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO... LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...PULASKI...ST. JOSEPH IN...STARKE...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN...BRANCH...CASS MI... HILLSDALE AND ST. JOSEPH MI. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH... DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS. * FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
144 WGUS63 KIWX 280226 FFAIWX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 926 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 ...HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO LATE TONIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES... AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF DITCHES...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL THEN LIKELY COMMENCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEGREE OF FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE WABASH AND MAUMEE VALLEYS. TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW TO MINIMIZE FLOOD RELATED DAMAGES. INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-281030- /O.CON.KIWX.FA.A.0001.110228T0500Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 926 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 /826 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/ ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB... ELKHART...FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO... LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...PULASKI...ST. JOSEPH IN...STARKE...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN...BRANCH...CASS MI... HILLSDALE AND ST. JOSEPH MI. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH... DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
997 WGUS63 KIWX 280630 FFAIWX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 130 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 ...HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO LATE TONIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES... AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF DITCHES...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL THEN LIKELY COMMENCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEGREE OF FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE WABASH AND MAUMEE VALLEYS. TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW TO MINIMIZE FLOOD RELATED DAMAGES. INZ003>005-012-014-MIZ077>079-280730- /O.CAN.KIWX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-STARKE-MARSHALL-BERRIEN-CASS MI- ST. JOSEPH MI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN... CULVER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN... DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS... WHITE PIGEON...MENDON 130 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 /1230 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011/ ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS PASSED THUS THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ INZ006>009-013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002- 004-005-015-016-024-025-281430- /O.CON.KIWX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-PULASKI-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO- WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS- ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH- DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA... ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN... GARRETT...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...ROCHESTER... AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE... COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT... ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY... MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...COLDWATER...BRONSON... HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE... NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP... MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT... DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 130 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. * THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ JC
096 WGUS63 KIWX 280925 FFAIWX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 425 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 INZ006>009-013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002- 004-005-015-016-024-025-281030- /O.CAN.KIWX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110228T2000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-PULASKI-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO- WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS- ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH- DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA... ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN... GARRETT...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...ROCHESTER... AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE... COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT... ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY... MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...COLDWATER...BRONSON... HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE... NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP... MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT... DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 425 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES WAS REPORTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF US 24. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAVING PASSED. $$ JC
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 27, 4:22 AM EST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 4:22 AM EST, 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
422 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011
.SHORT TERM...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE SW CONUS IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EJECTING NE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MASSIVE
HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDWEST. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT VIA ROBUST MOMENTUM
FIELDS UNDER STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
LOCALLY...A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONGOING WEAK WAA NOTED. THERMAL PROFILES HAVE
WARMED ENOUGH AND MID LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED...SUPPORTING A
CHANGE OVER FROM -SN TO -DZ AND -FZDZ ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LAST
PUSH OF DZ WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT ICING
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY RISEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS NOW ABOVE 32F. WEAK WAVE ALONG THE LOCAL
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AM...WITH AN END TO ANY
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THE
PERIOD...THE STAUNCH UPPER IMPULSE AND IT/S ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
TO LOCAL WEATHER. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IN THE PERIOD. AN OPEN FASTER MID LEVEL WAVE
ADVECTION IS NOW FAVORED IN ALL SOLUTIONS...A LIKELY RESULT OF
BETTER WAVE SAMPLING IN THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A FASTER BIAS TO PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE FA MON...GIVEN A
PROGRESSIVE WAVE SOLUTION. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO
BE THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
FA...GIVEN EXPECTED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD A
NAM SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITH A SREF AND ECMWF BIAS.
TODAY...ANY REMAINING LIGHT ZL/L WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H9-H8
ISENTROPIC AND THETA-E CHARTS INDICATE A RATHER DECENT AMOUNT OF LL
LIFT AND ADV ENSUING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POP
CHANCES TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH IS LINE WITH
NAM/HRRR/NMM TRENDS. DID ADD A THUNDER CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN
INCREASING ELEVATED THUNDER POTENTIAL PER BUFR PROGS. CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT WAA SHOULD ALLOW DECENT T/S RISES ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MASSIVE HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT PER AN INCREASING MOMENTUM FIELD
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH STAUNCH LL WAA AND
POSITIVE THETA-E ADV PROCESS ONGOING. 60-70 KNOT PROGGED LLJ WITH
THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER THE CENTRAL FA BY 06Z WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
PRECIP AS PRECIP WATER INCREASES TO 1.25-1.4 INCHES...WITH OVER 10
G/KG AT H85. IN ADDITION...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN
STRONG LL FORCING PER COUPLED JET DYNAMICS AND STEEP MID LAPSE RATES
PER A MODIFIED EML EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS IN
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM WHITE COUNTY
TO STEUBEN COUNTY AND 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE GIVEN
LOCATION OF THE LLJ NOSE AN THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC TROUGH. 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...WITH SIG FLOODING POSSIBLE ON RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS/AND LOW
LYING AREAS GIVEN THE RELEASE OF THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. IT/S NOT A
QUESTION OF IF HEAVY RAIN WILL MATERIALIZE...THE QUESTION IS WHERE IN
THE FA. HENCE...WILL LEAVE WATCH AREA THE SAME. DID CHANGE TO A
FLOOD WATCH TO STRESS CREEK/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL AND AREAL FLOOD
CONCERNS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE...WHICH
LINES UP WITH BORDERING WFOS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...DO NOT EXPECT A FLASHING SITUATION WITH MORE CONCERNS ON
WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY LASTING SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPS
WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE SE THIRD AS THE SFC
WARM FRONT SWINGS NORTH. FASTER WAVE PHASE SPEED SUPPORTS A QUICKER
COLD FROPA...WITH RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. DID ADD A SNOW CHANCE ON THE WESTERN PRECIP EDGE GIVEN
SHARPLY FALLING T/S AND SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A GLANCING BLOW PER
THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FALLING T/S CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH CLEARING
SKIES N-S BY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH WINDS QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING. VERY DRY
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA PER NORTHERLY FLOW...SUPPORTING A
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...WITH TEMPS RESPONDING WELL. THERE
MAY AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE SOIL MOISTURE/LIGHT WINDS/AND CLEAR SKIES.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
NEXT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. DEEP WESTERLY WIND PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY AND WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM CANADIAN
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE
WARM SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND POSSIBLE MIXING TO
900 HPA...COULD EVEN HAVE SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING DOWN WESTERN CANADIAN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GIVE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO GREAT LAKES COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN
EVEN STRONGER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF ARCTIC BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...HAVE
OPTED TO STAY WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTION OFFERED BY GFS/GEFS MEANS
GIVEN RECENT TENDENCIES FOR LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THIS
STILL SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NORTH SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FOR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM MID 30S FAR NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 40S FAR SOUTH. CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY
OF SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES FEEL THAT
THIS WOULD BE A TRACE EVENT AT BEST.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO ONSET OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERAL
SCENARIO OF EPAC JET PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN CONUS AND A MORE
ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN FOR THE THURS/FRI TIME PERIOD. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES...OVERALL IDEA OF
BROAD WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONG EPAC JET. AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH
FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE QUESTIONS MAY ARISE THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INITIAL DRY CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET BULB EFFECTS...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS FAR
NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING HAVE KEPT LIQUID PRECIP
TYPE INTACT EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN UPPER
HEIGHT PATTERN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY NEXT FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL
DIFFERENT IDEAS IN HOW PROGRESSIVE MAIN NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY BECOMES...WITH 00Z ECWMF ACTUALLY CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE
MAINTAINED A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA OFFERED BY GFS/GEFS/CANADIAN THAT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ISSUES BACK INTO THE PICTURE
BY LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY IN THIS MORE
PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
LL TROUGHING IN A WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VIS OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE FA...WITH AREAS OF DZ AND FZDZ
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. BL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR JUST
BELOW 32F...SUPPORTING LIGHT ICING AT TIMES. DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WAA INTO THE
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED BY EVENING. LL TROUGHING OVER WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD DOWN CIGS AND VIS THERE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE ADV OVER A SNOW
PACK...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN
AREAS CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. EXPECT A TREND TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL PLACES BY SUN EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND BR/FOG. ADDED A CB MENTION FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JCHazardous weather outlook, Feb 27, 4:39 AM EST, 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 439 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-280945- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 439 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 /339 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN WARMER AIR TONIGHT THAT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM THIS MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LAND FLOODING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING THIS UPCOMING WEEK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL POSE A THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY OBSERVED FLOODING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-280945- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 439 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES... OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE
In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 26, 11:13 PM EST, 5 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1113 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM SNOW BENTON HARBOR 42.12N 86.45W
02/26/2011 M1.8 INCH BERRIEN MI PUBLIC
24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
&&
EVENT NUMBER IWX1100527
NDMThe office that day
Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 4:27 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | IWX | 42 hr | |
| Feb 27, 11:06 AM EST | River Flood Watch | IWX | Starke | 24 hr |
| Feb 27, 3:05 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | IWX | Starke | 25 min |
| Feb 27, 5:09 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | IWX | Marshall | 21 min |
| Feb 27, 6:02 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | IWX | Fulton, Pulaski | 28 min |
| Feb 27, 6:30 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | IWX | DeKalb, Noble | 30 min |
| Feb 27, 6:36 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | IWX | Kosciusko | 24 min |
Nearby
Flood Watches in Indiana, 2011Flood Watches in Ohio, 2011Flood Watches in Michigan, 2011Every flood watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.