Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Northern Indiana

018 
WGUS63 KIWX 010910
FFAIWX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUALLY
REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
FASHION...AS THEY DID THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS BY MIDDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IN YOUR MORNING COMMUTE. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADS AND UNDERPASSES. 

INZ003-004-012-014-MIZ077-078-011500-
/O.CON.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-MARSHALL-BERRIEN-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011 /410 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM
CDT/ THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...LA 
  PORTE...MARSHALL...ST. JOSEPH IN AND STARKE. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MICHIGAN...BERRIEN AND CASS MI. 

* UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
  HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
  FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
  TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS.

* HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF INTO STREAMS...
  DITCHES AND CREEKS. RAPID RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FLOODING OF
  LOW LYING AREAS...STREETS AND ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

605 
WGUS63 KIWX 011447
FFAIWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUALLY
REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
FASHION...AS THEY DID THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS BY MIDDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IN YOUR MORNING COMMUTE. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADS AND UNDERPASSES.

INZ003-004-012-014-MIZ077-078-011800-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-MARSHALL-BERRIEN-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011 /947 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...LA 
  PORTE...MARSHALL...ST. JOSEPH IN AND STARKE. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MICHIGAN...BERRIEN AND CASS MI. 

* UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME
  AREAS. LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
  CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME
  AREAS.

* HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF INTO 
  STREAMS... DITCHES AND CREEKS. RAPID RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
  AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREETS AND ROADS WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

249 
WGUS63 KIWX 011734
FFAIWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
134 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUALLY
REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
FASHION...AS THEY DID THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS BY MIDDAY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IN YOUR MORNING COMMUTE. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADS AND UNDERPASSES.

INZ004-014-MIZ078-011845-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. JOSEPH IN-MARSHALL-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...
WALKERTON...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS
134 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISED.


$$

INZ003-012-MIZ077-012100-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-STARKE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN
134 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011 /1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...LA PORTE 
  AND STARKE. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN. 

* UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
  AFTERNOON. LOCAIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE
  ALREADY FALLEN...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE
  THROUGH 5 PM EDT.

* HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF INTO 
  STREAMS... DITCHES AND CREEKS. RAPID RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
  AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREETS AND ROADS WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

475 
WGUS63 KIWX 011744 CCA
FFAIWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 5 PM.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IN YOUR MORNING COMMUTE. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADS AND UNDERPASSES.

INZ004-014-MIZ078-011845-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. JOSEPH IN-MARSHALL-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...
WALKERTON...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.


$$

INZ003-012-MIZ077-012100-
/O.COR.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-STARKE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011 /1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...LA PORTE 
  AND STARKE. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN. 

* UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
  AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE
  ALREADY FALLEN...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE
  THROUGH 5 PM EDT.

* HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF INTO 
  STREAMS... DITCHES AND CREEKS. RAPID RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
  AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREETS AND ROADS WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

639 
WGUS63 KIWX 012057
FFAIWX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
457 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

INZ003-012-MIZ077-012200-
/O.EXP.KIWX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-STARKE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN
457 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011 /357 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
740 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

.AVIATION...

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH KSBN BEING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KFWA BEING ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING
SHOW INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL
JET ORIGINATING IN HIGH MOISTURE HIGH INSTABILITY AIR IN THE PLAINS
MOVES OVER TOP OF PLAINS CAP AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING.
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND DIVE SOUTH ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR TRAINING CELLS. HAVE TRIED TO ADD SOME TIMING FOR BEST THUNDER
CHANCES AT KSBN WITH FIRST FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING LOW AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.
KFWA WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW FAR EAST UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN TAKES PLACE
AS TRAJECTORIES COULD BRING STORMS INTO KFWA VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED IN AVIATION SECTION...TRAINING CELLS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A HIGH
MOISTURE SOURCE REGION TO OUR WEST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. ANY DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH MEAN FLOW AND THIS PUTS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN IN AREA OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER BUT RADAR
TRENDS THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OVERNIGHT SUGGEST
LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. STILL
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN LOCATION AS STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DICTATE HOW FAR WEST OR EAST STORMS WILL TRAIN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
FAVORING FAR WESTERN CWA AND POINTS WEST OF LAPORTE. HOWEVER...NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS A BIT FURTHER EAST AND
COULD COME SOUTH ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND
DISCUSSION WTH HPC LEAD FORECASTER INDICATES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION DEPENDING ON THE JET. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE DANGEROUS OVERNIGHT TIMING HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING FOR FAR NORTHWEST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TO BE SAFE. UPDATED GRIDS AND WATCH WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX CAN BE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD
AS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS UTAH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
FORCE A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL EDGE EWD INTO THE FA LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LOCATED INVOF OF CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
AS OF 19Z IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY BEING FORCED BY MODEST 25-30
KT CROSS ISOBARIC ISENTROPIC FLOW WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASING
MUCAPE PER ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALSO JUST NE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
INVOF OF A WEAK MID LVL IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE AREA. SLAI4
AND BLRWS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS AT
850 HPA...WHILE WNCI2 AND WLCI3 ONLY SHOWING 5-10 KTS. THIS WEAKER
FLOW/FORCING/THETA-E ADV THIS FAR SOUTH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING TREND
AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SSEWD ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF AN EML
CAP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...FA STILL UNDER SOME
INFLUENCE OF SINKING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DRY ACTIVITY UP AS IT SETTLES SEWD. WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES OPTED
FOR CHC POPS MOST PLACES...HIGHEST NORTHWEST AND DRY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A LOW RISK / 5 PERCENT FROM SPC / FOR HAIL
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM A MID LEVEL JETLET SINKING
SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND INCREASING CAPE BTW -10C
AND -30C. GIVEN FLOW ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL TO SLOPED LOW LVL
BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING PWATS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP TO OUR NW OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ROBUST
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHERE
REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS LLJ ARCS EWD A BIT SUPPORTING
BETTER MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE LOCALLY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SEWD INTO THE FA. AGAIN...WITH THIS BEING
SUMMER CONVECTION AND BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING RESIDING NORTH WILL
HOLD ONTO CHC POPS 6-18Z FRIDAY. IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES
IMPACT THE FA THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WITHIN THE THETA-E/PWAT RIDGE.

CAPPED/HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS UNDER THE EWD PROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MIXES EAST OF THE FA. STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE AFTERNOON LIMITING TEMP RISES
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL DEEP DIURNAL MIXING AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSOLATION
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S EAST TO THE LOW 90S FAR
WEST.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT...AS
MODEL H85 TEMPS YIELD VALUES UP TO 23C ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH
MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. FEEL THERE WILL BE
LIMITATIONS TO MAXIMUM INSOLATION...GIVEN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL CONTINUE HEAT MENTION IN HWO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ACROSS ERN UTAH PER
LATEST W/V IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NE WARD ALONG THE MASSIVE CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...AND PHASE WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY...CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN THE FORM OF S/W JUST OFF PAC
COAST OF BC PER W/V...ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SW ONTARIO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARDS A 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TIMING
FOR FROPA...WHICH WOULD PLACE IT IN THE NW PART OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KTS WOULD SUPPORT A MORE
MULTICELLULAR/ISOLATED LINE SEGMENT MODE OF CONVECTION...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE SEVERE MENTION IN HWO...AS
THREAT STILL REMAINS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDENT ON ACTUAL TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DRY AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN QUESTIONS TO AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF FORCING. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S
MONDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT SE WARD THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS EXIST...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BACKING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAPORTE...ST. JOSEPH...MARSHALL AND
STARKE.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BERRIEN AND CASS.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...LASHLEY
UPDATE...LASHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
416 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-012030-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
416 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 /316 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...
THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
REACH INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE PRIOR TO ANY STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-012030-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
416 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
451 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

INZ003-004-MIZ077-302130-
BERRIEN MI-LA PORTE IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
451 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY
IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND EXTREME WESTERN CASS AND BERRIEN COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF ST. JOSEPH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ST. JOSEPH AND BENTON HARBOR...
  FAIR PLAIN AND BENTON HEIGHTS...
  BUCHANAN...
  STEVENSVILLE...
  BRIDGMAN AND SHOREWOOD-TOWER HILL...
  BERRIEN SPRINGS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4196 8622 4191 8623 4165 8652 4182 8672
      4192 8661 4211 8650 4221 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 334DEG 35KT 4211 8666

CEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
618 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

INZ003-004-MIZ077-078-302315-
BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-LA PORTE IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
618 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ELKHART COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND
NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
CASS AND SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRIDGMAN MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BUCHANAN...
  NILES...
  GEORGETOWN...
  SOUTH BEND AND GRANGER...
  THREE OAKS...
  NEW CARLISLE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4208 8651 4171 8606 4154 8659 4181 8674
      4184 8671 4192 8661 4201 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 323DEG 36KT 4192 8653

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
656 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

INZ004-MIZ077-078-302345-
BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-
656 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ELKHART COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND BERRIEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

AT 653 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIR PLAIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BUCHANAN...
  NILES...
  GEORGETOWN...
  BERRIEN SPRINGS...
  ROSELAND AND EDWARDSBURG...
  BARODA AND EAU CLAIRE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4178 8600 4164 8644 4198 8658 4211 8650
      4217 8643 4218 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 333DEG 33KT 4204 8645

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             SAINT JOSEPH            42.11N  86.48W
06/30/2011  E0.70 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF HALF INCH TO DIME SIZE HAIL
            COVERING GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101096

CEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

INZ003-004-012>015-010000-
FULTON IN-LA PORTE IN-MARSHALL IN-PULASKI IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
712 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
KOSCIUSKO...WESTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH AND NORTHERN
FULTON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND EASTERN PULASKI...
EASTERN LA PORTE AND EASTERN STARKE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

AT 711 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KOONTZ LAKE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PLYMOUTH...MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PLYMOUTH...
  ROCHESTER...
  CULVER AND ARGOS...
  DONALDSON...
  OAK GROVE...TWIN LAKES AND OBER...
  BURR OAK...HIBBARD AND RUTLAND...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4148 8664 4156 8643 4111 8607 4109 8608
      4109 8606 4107 8604 4097 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 342DEG 35KT 4141 8648

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             W GROVERTOWN            41.38N  86.50W
06/30/2011  M0.25 INCH       STARKE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101097

CEO