Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR ANOTHER 18 TO 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR TO FINALLY BRING A
BREAK FROM THE RECENT EXTENDED HEAT WAVE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES OVER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

FOCUS IS POPS. GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND A BLEND IS SUFFICIENT.

MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE BULLISH ON PRECIP TONIGHT. ALL HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT LATELY WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO
COMPLEXES...ONE NEARER THE MAIN UPPER WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND ANOTHER FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG
A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. APPEARS THAT EITHER ONE WOULD BE
LIKELY TO LARGELY MISS CENTRAL INDIANA. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAPID LOSS OF INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT. WILL
BUMP DOWN MOS POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE IN THE EVENING...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT ONE OF THESE
COMPLEXES COULD MANAGE TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA.

ON TEMPS...WENT WITH TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE...AS SKY COVER SHOULD
BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS
STILL A WAYS OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON TEMPS WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ON POPS TUESDAY. GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIMILAR AND A BLEND IS SUFFICIENT.

WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE TOMORROW...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO SOME CAPPING...IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN BOUNDARY AND UPPER SUPPORT SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY...SO EXPECT MOST DEVELOPMENT TO BE EAST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

ON TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING TOO COOL AS IT HAS BEEN FOR WEEKS NOW. STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL LATE TOMORROW...AND 850 TEMPS ONLY
DROP SLIGHTLY TOMORROW...SO WILL BUMP MOS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. WILL
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE MORE 90 DEGREE DAY...BUT THIS WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE LAST OF THE STRING. CONTINUED TO LEAN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM AS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUN ON DRY GROUND SHOULD ALLOW
EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PROVIDE LIKELY THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED SLIGHTLY COOL GIVEN RECENT
HISTORY/CLIMATOLOGY AND 850 TEMPS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. TEMPS SHOULD
RUN NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 082100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES.
OVERALL...MODEL DATA SUGGEST RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY UNTIL ABOUT 090400Z-090600Z WHEN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...PASSES EAST OF KIND. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS AMENDMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO
INSERT MORE PERIODS OF EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION DURING THE COURSE OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AT KBMG/KHUF/KLAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE
APPROACH OF A REMNANT MCV TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT
KHUF FIRST...FOLLOWED BY KBMG THEN KIND AND KLAF TO FOLLOW. HAVE
INSERTED VCTS MENTION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KHUF WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN
DIRECT IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE CONTINUING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT TO THE CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE...WILL LIKELY AMEND
OTHER SITES AS CONFIDENCE GROWS. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING BUT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE STILL TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN CB WORDING AT
ALL SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. WITH SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION ONGOING
TUESDAY...MAY SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW 3KFT IN THE
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN/JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-091000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM THROUGH 8 PM.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL... AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR TUESDAY, FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS A
HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
521 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

INZ049-057-082145-
HENRY-RUSH-
521 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HENRY AND NORTHEASTERN
RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF RUSHVILLE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF
CAMBRIDGE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LEWISVILLE AROUND 530 PM EDT...
STRAUGHN AROUND 535 PM EDT...

&&

LAT...LON 3987 8521 3979 8521 3979 8522 3978 8530
      3966 8530 3963 8552 3980 8558 3990 8520
      3988 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 272DEG 22KT 3974 8543

JH