Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
706 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING
THIS EVENING AND THEN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THEN...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONTS WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONT RETURNS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAT
WAVE SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS AS MODELS STILL HAVE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS EVENING AND LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT WITH MIXED LAYER MODEL CAPES
FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER JET
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE OR BETTER
POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
850 MILLIBAR INFLOW AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE. COULD SEE SOME
EVENING SEVERE STORMS...BUT LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THEM ISOLATED.

THE WARMER NAM MOS LOOKS GOOD WITH THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS NORTH
IN THE 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS FAR APART ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF
HAVE IT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA 12Z
SATURDAY WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GF...00Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 09Z SREF
DONT HAVE IT THERE UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND SO BLEND LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO REGARDING
FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS WERE SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPES TO AROUND 200 J/KG ON FRIDAY AND REMAINING ABOVE
1000 J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH CLOSEST TO THE 850 MILLIBAR INFLOW
AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THEN...SATURDAY...BEST POPS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO THE FRONT TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE
THE ACTIVITY END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONT DROPPING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COULD AGAIN SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WEAK SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THEY
WOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG RANGE MODELS STILL A WAYS APART REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RETURN OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT BACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THUS...CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. AGREE WITH HPC THAT SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND OTHERWISE LOWEST CHANCES WOULD SEEM TO BE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH MODELS NOT WELL IN SINK OR
CONSISTENT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES AND JUST KEEP SMALL POPS
IN EACH PERIOD NEXT WEEK AND FINE TUNE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
ALSO...MODELS DO SHOW A FEW SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERTOP A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE...SO WOULD
HATE TO CUT POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY JUST TO HAVE TO ADD THEM BACK.
HPC TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...SO WILL NOT GO QUITE AS LOW. OVERALL...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS/...

VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD PROVIDED ISOLATED TSRA ARE NOT
STRIKING TAF SITES. ANY TSRA WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AND THESE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD TONIGHT. PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BEST
POSITION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOW WHERE
TSRA ARE CURRENTLY FOUND ADVECTING EAST. THESE SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND DEVELOPMENT
MAY EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO THE HUF AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION THERE.

AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER SUN DOWN...LINGERING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL AGAIN BE
THE FOCUS FOR CB AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND AMPLE CAPE IS AVAILABLE.
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BROAD VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

INZ021-028>031-035-101000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-
251 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE WABASH RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME OF THE
STORMS FRIDAY COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY STORM.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ036>041-045>048-052>054-061-101000-
MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-GREENE-
251 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME OF THE
STORMS FRIDAY COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ042-049-055>057-062>065-068>072-101000-
RANDOLPH-HENRY-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
251 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME OF THE
STORMS SATURDAY COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ043-044-051-060-067-101000-
VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-SULLIVAN-KNOX-
251 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE WABASH RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME OF THE
STORMS FRIDAY COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY STORM.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
715 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

INZ028-035-043-100000-
FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-WARREN-
715 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR FOUNTAIN...NORTHWESTERN
VERMILLION AND SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF DANVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FOSTER AND WEST LEBANON AROUND 725 PM EDT...
COVINGTON AROUND 735 PM EDT...
VEEDERSBURG AROUND 755 PM EDT...
HILLSBORO AND MELLOTT AROUND 800 PM EDT...

WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS!

&&

LAT...LON 4035 8753 4035 8709 3996 8710 4011 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 294DEG 18KT 4022 8750

PUMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
807 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

INZ028-100045-
WARREN-
807 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM EDT...

AT 805 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BOSWELL...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
FOWLER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RAINSVILLE AROUND 815 PM EDT...
PINE VILLAGE AROUND 820 PM EDT...

&&

LAT...LON 4047 8752 4048 8710 4036 8710 4034 8714
      4038 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 271DEG 30KT 4044 8737

PUMA

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