Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1223 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AIR AND
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN AS THERE HAS BEEN NO
MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
EVEN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY. LATEST RUN OF THE RAPID REFRESH SHOWS
NO PRECIP OVER ANY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND 18Z GFS CONCURS. WITH NO
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE AND RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO
MOVE FROM JUST UPSTREAM TO DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THE TONIGHT
PERIOD HAVE PULLED POPS OUT FROM ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. ONLY LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST BEFORE 6Z
BECAUSE OF THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S LOOK GOOD WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S THAT
SHOULD DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT BUT NOT GOING CALM BECAUSE OF PRESSURE GRADIENT THINK
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WILL BE IN AREAS THAT SAW SOME RAIN
TODAY AND ARE NEAREST TO THE WARM FRONT...SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG
TO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE. WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY FEEL THAT
LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
RELATIVELY WARM START AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S LOOK
GOOD...WHICH IS A BLEND OF MOS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS ITS APPROACH. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AROUND. GIVEN
THESE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD...SO
WENT LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT
STILL CHANCE CATEGORY...ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING
CLOSER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE COOL... CLOUDY... WITH WIDESPREAD DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS... BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD. BY MONDAY
NIGHT... THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM STRONGER AND CENTERED OVER
TENNESSEE... WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
GULF COAST.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OTHER OFFICES ON UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
GUIDANCE... DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF HPC AND ECMWF.  LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SFC
LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. TAPERED OFF
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND DECREASED POPS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE TRENDING
DECENTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING. STUCK CLOSE TO HPC FOR WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LATE
EVENING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...COULD SEE SOME MVFR FROM
09Z-12Z ESPECIALLY AT HUF AND BMG WHERE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION WAS
ONLY 4 DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH CIRRUS DECK MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND NO RAIN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WORSE THAN MVFR DESPITE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

ISOLATED WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE
CAPPED...BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 20Z AS UPPER
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. STILL TOO FAR OUT AND
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH CB'S FOR
NOW.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50/SMF/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...50/SMF
LONG TERM....AKB
AVIATION...MK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
105 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

INZ029-030-036-101730-
CLINTON-MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-
105 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...WESTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CLARKS HILL AROUND 120 PM EDT...
MULBERRY AND COLFAX AROUND 125 PM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 8653 4019 8647 4019 8656 4019 8670
      4018 8671 4017 8686 4034 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 263DEG 22KT 4027 8683

MRD/SMF