Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY STALL NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES BY. THIS MAY
RESULT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  FINALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
OUR WAY ON DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM TONIGHT/...
RADAR HAS SHOWN A RAPID INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS LAST FEW HOURS.  A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LAPSE RATE STEEPENS AND WIND
PROILERS AND VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE A 40 TO 50 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET. IN ADDITION 35 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

AFTER DARK PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRY MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE EAST.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES.  I BELIEVE SOME CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST.  WILL RAISE LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THERE DUE TO SOME WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE TEMPERATURES EARLY ON AND RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE
RULE. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GO WITH A MAV/MET BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES. ACTUALLY BOTH ARE PRETTY CLOSE.  AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY HOLD UP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS SOME
MIXING MAY LESSEN EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ON SATURDAY WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES AS THERE WILL
BE SOME SUN ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.  MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER THIS FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST OR CONTINUE MOVING ON.  CURRENT
MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING PRECIP MAY BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.  HOWEVER PAST
RUNS WERE SLOWER AND I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT IT MAY NOT
TEMPORARILY STALL...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR EAST INTO MONDAY.   THIS ENDING IS STILL
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAST AS
CURRENT MODEL RUN.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  WENT PRETTY
CLOSE TO HPC TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC
NUMBERS WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS INDICATE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR WEST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

CEILING MAY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AS CUMULUS
THAT ARE FORMING AS WELL AS THOSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST GENERALLY
HAVE BASES FROM 2000 TO 3500 FT. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME LOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS POINT BUT WILL INCLUDE A CB MENTION AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 2Z WHEN WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH SUNSET. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD BASE DROPS A BIT WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND DRYING MOVES IN ALOFT...AND THIS DRYING SHOULD WIN OUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND VFR PREVAIL.

&&

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR REGION
ALONG AND WEST OF A KOKOMO TO LEBANON TO SULLIVAN LINE THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY.

FORTUNATELY...I DO NOT EXPECT RAINS THIS EVENING TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ON-GOING FLOODING AS THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING RATHER QUICKLY AND MOST OF THEM WILL BE LIGHT.  MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON SOME BASINS AND ON-GOING FLOODING.  THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP
HYDROLOGY...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-290945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
540 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. NEARLY ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED. WITH SOILS SATURATED
DUE TO RECENT RAINS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BE ABLE TO BRING
DOWN TREES. UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT.

FINALLY...EXTENSIVE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS.
MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF AREA RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE TIPPECANOE
RIVER IN CARROLL COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAJOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF
RIVERS IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE
TIPPECANOE RIVER IN CARROLL COUNTY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT DAMAGE FROM STRONG WINDS
TODAY...ALONG WITH ANY HAIL OR THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

NIELD

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