Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. THE FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS APPROACHES INDIANA THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ANALYSIS AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ERN WISCONSIN...NW ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CROSS OVER THE IL/IN STATE BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED IN SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FEATURE...AND BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBS TEND TO AGREE.

CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE PRETTY
SPARSE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ILLINOIS...HOWEVER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS STRENGTHENED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS...AND
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WHICH THE
STORMS ARE EMBEDDED (IN EXCESS OF 50 KT) THESE STORMS HAVE THE RISK
FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING THESE PROBLEMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH HEADLINE.

GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...ALMOST STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS EXIST EVEN AFTER THE FROPA THANKS TO FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROF WHOSE AXIS DOESN/T MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO NUISANCE FLOODING THANKS TO HEAVY
RAINS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...SO EVEN ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF PRECIP
COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL ENSURE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN
FORECAST AND HWO.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS. EXPECTING MONDAY/S
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S LOWS IN THE 60S WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
BETWEEN 00-06Z...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE FOREAST AREA WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. CAA FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK CLOSER TO SUNRISE.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH NEUTRAL TO COLD ADVECTION GOING ON THROUGH THE DAY AT
850 MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AND DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE VARIABILITY
SHOWING UP IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OUT. FOR NOW USING
AN AVERAGE TIMING FROM THE ENSEMBLES LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY SO WENT WITH A 50 POP THERE.
RAMPED UP FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP CHANCES GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A COUPLE OF THE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY THAT...IF THEY VERIFIED...COULD POINT TO
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR FRIDAY. WOULD LIKE TO REITERATE
THOUGH THAT IS IF /AND ITS A MIGHTY BIG IF AT THIS POINT/ THEY
VERIFY. FOR TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE WARMER THAN AVERAGE
FOR WEDS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS/...
RADAR TRENDS WERE SHOWING STORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI
WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND MODELS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST BEST CHANCES STARTING IN LAF
AROUND 07Z...HUF AROUND 08Z AND IND AND BMG AROUND 09Z. FEEL BEST
COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME IS TO GO WITH TEMPO THUNDERSTORM
GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. ACTIVITY COULD
LAST A LITTLE LONGER AT HUF AND BMG AS MODELS BRING A WAVE ACROSS
KENTUCKY ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAF
AROUND 10Z...HUF AROUND 11Z AND IND AND BMG AROUND 12Z...AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP MVFR IN WITH THE RAIN AND POST
FRONTAL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AND CLEAR
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND
PERHAPS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...KOCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>044-120800-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
400 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-120800-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
400 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WITH LOCAL FIELDS AND PASTURES ALREADY
MOIST...THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY LEAD TO SHARP RISES IN AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

INZ021-030-031-110930-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-
442 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...HOWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM EDT...

AT 436 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRANKFORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GALVESTON AROUND 500 AM EDT...
WAWPECONG AROUND 510 AM EDT...

&&

LAT...LON 4058 8637 4058 8587 4058 8586 4049 8586
      4041 8611 4041 8623 4040 8624 4036 8624
      4030 8642 4047 8664 4066 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 228DEG 33KT 4045 8637

77/TDUD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
456 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

INZ037-039>041-046>049-054>057-110945-
BOONE-DELAWARE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-JOHNSON-MADISON-
MARION-MORGAN-RUSH-SHELBY-
456 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...JOHNSON...SHELBY...
WESTERN RUSH...EASTERN HENDRICKS...MARION...HANCOCK...HENRY...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...HAMILTON...SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

AT 454 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEBANON TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPENCER...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SHERIDAN...MONROVIA...EAGLE CREEK RESERVOIR...AVON...ZIONSVILLE...
PLAINFIELD...PARAGON AND CLERMONT AROUND 510 AM EDT...
INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRPORT...CENTERTON...WESTFIELD...SPEEDWAY...
MOORESVILLE AND LAKE HART AROUND 515 AM EDT...

&&

LAT...LON 3944 8561 3944 8564 3934 8566 3935 8664
      4017 8622 4014 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 269DEG 45KT 4008 8644 3935 8681

77/TDUD

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