Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Indianapolis, IN

749 
WWUS53 KIND 260602
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
202 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

INC035-065-135-260612-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-110926T0630Z/
DELAWARE-HENRY-RANDOLPH-
202 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DELAWARE...HENRY AND WESTERN
RANDOLPH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4029 8501 4000 8516 4000 8519 3993 8519
      3979 8526 3980 8554 4038 8550 4038 8522
      4031 8521 4031 8502 4031 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 197DEG 48KT 4032 8525

$$

NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DAILY CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL DATA...EXTENDED THE HIGHER
POPS LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES. PRESSURE FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW
GOING FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
WARMER AIR EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

UPPED WINDS A BIT AS GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE BEING REPORTED AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES. PLENTY OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND THIS IS ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE ON POPS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON MONDAY INDICATE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT MINIMAL CAPE AND
MOISTURE ALOFT. BROAD CYCLONIC LOWER LEVEL FLOW ALSO CONTINUES.
THUS WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO COVER THE RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. WILL USE
A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SURGE EASTWARD TOWARD INDIANA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH LIFT AS ANOTHER WAVE SPOKES
AROUND THE LOW. THUS WILL AGAIN RAISE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND
AGAIN TREND LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS.

UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA ON TUESDAY...
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS AGAIN INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND SATURATION. THUS
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD ALONG WITH SOME SHRA. HAVE AGAIN RAISED
POPS AND USED A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WORKING AROUND THE BROAD FLOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WILL AGAIN
INCLUDE SOME POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THIS
PERIOD. AGAIN WILL TREND TOWARD WETBULBS ON LOWS AND USE A BLEND
ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LONG SINCE EXITED THE
REGION AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUT MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE
AREA...OTHER THAN A DRY COLD FRONT. A MORE BROAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN BY NEXT WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAFS/...

RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MAIN SLUG OF LIFT
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE
TIME...SO THE HEAVIER RAINS/THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 260900Z
UNTIL FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES BY. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE FROM
A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TO DEVELOP FROM 220-240 HEADINGS
AFTER 261500Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-270245-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1032 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON CREEKS
AND STREAMS. PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL
OCCUR.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

TIMING: HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGER STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH
400 AM.

DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LOW WILL LINGER INTO MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ST. PAUL           39.42N 85.62W
09/26/2011                   DECATUR            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED IN ROADWAY NEAR SAINT PAUL.

&&

NIELD