Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Indianapolis, IN

558 
WWUS53 KIND 250055
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
855 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

INC015-023-157-250115-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-110825T0115Z/
CARROLL-CLINTON-TIPPECANOE-
855 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CLINTON...
SOUTHERN CARROLL AND TIPPECANOE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 846 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS 
STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FRANKFORT...ROSSVILLE...FLORA...MICHIGANTOWN AND BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 8638 4043 8636 4024 8634 4022 8707
      4047 8709 4062 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 256DEG 49KT 4041 8662
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOMANN/MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY
FORECAST PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE ONLY
INTERRUPTION TO THIS MAY BE A WEAK...LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND A BLEND IS USED.

AIRMASS REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED AS EVIDENCED BY VERY LITTLE
CUMULUS FORMATION THUS FAR TODAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF CU HAS MANAGED
TO FORM IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
AROUND PEORIA TO SOUTHWEST OF VALPARAISO...AND THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEPICTED BY THE HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH...THAT SHOULD DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ABOVE THE STRONG CAP...WITH
MODERATE BUT AMPLE SHEAR VALUES EXPANDING INTO THE AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES/STRONG DCAPE/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
PRESENT PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FAIRLY HIGH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR OR
ABOVE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SUGGEST A RELATIVELY MINOR HAIL
THREAT...BUT A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE NO LATER THAN 06Z...AND
WILL QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS AFTER THAT TIME. MOST OF THE AREA MAY
SEE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 23Z THROUGH 04Z.

ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE LOOKED SLIGHTLY TOO COOL BASED ON UPSTREAM
MINS. HAVE BUMPED UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS TEMPS. GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND A BLEND REMAINS SUFFICIENT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM...AND A DRY FORECAST IS THE RESULT. EXPECT A DECENT CU FIELD
TOMORROW AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE LOOKED A BIT TOO COOL ON MAXES BASED ON 850
TEMPS...UPSTREAM READINGS...AND RECENT HISTORY. MIN TEMP NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...WHEN THEY LOOKED SLIGHTLY
TOO COOL BASED ON UPSTREAM MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THE RULE UNTIL RIDGING FLATTENS OUT AND
EXPANDS EASTWARD NEXT WEEK. A WEAK...LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK WAVE MAY
IMPINGE UPON THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP PRODUCING SYSTEMS OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED. BASED ON 850
TEMPS...FELT THAT HPC NUMBERS WERE A BIT UNDERDONE...AND BUMPED
MOST MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z TAFS/...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A CUMULUS FIELD JUST NORTH OF
LAFAYETTE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY
ISSUANCE TIME. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAF AROUND 02Z...HUF
AND IND AROUND 04Z AND BMG AROUND 06Z. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST
SECOND TO SEE IF THUNDERSTORMS DUE IN FACT DEVELOP AND IF SO...IF
THEY BREAK OUT IN A SOLID OR BROKEN LINE. THAT WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER OR TEMPO...VCTS OR JUST CB GROUP WILL BE INCLUDED.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 18 KNOTS WILL DIE OFF AFTER
DARK AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA. SKIES EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED VFR CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1127 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-251000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1127 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE BETWEEN 600 PM AND MIDNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. STORMS WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER ANY OF THOSE WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN