River Flood Warning 136, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.MESO UPDATE...
MORNING COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY NEAR KHUF SWWD TO NE OF KSDF.  A SECOND LOW
LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KT EXTENDS FROM KLIT NEWD TO KEVV...WITH 40-45 KT
FLOW FROM MID TN NWD INTO INDIANA.  OVER THIS IS SWLY MID LEVEL  OF
FLOW OF 70 KT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO WRN KY AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF
90 KT FROM SRN OK INTO NWRN KY PLACING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SWRN QUARTER OF INDIANA THAT WILL ENHANCE LIFT AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS IS
DESTABILIZING OVER SRN INDIANA AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S.  COMBINE THIS WITH THE SHEAR
THAT IS PRESENT WILL BE INCREASING  THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS
AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES FROM S AND SW OF A LINE FROM KHUF - KIND
- KSDF. AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 AND SW OF I-74 SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF
THE WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A WARM FRONT TO THE
OUR NORTH. LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE WARM FRONT WILL PULL AWAY
LEAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER INTO MID WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS
STORMS AND TORNADOES...AND SPC WILL BE EXPANDING THE HIGH RISK
FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT...STRESSED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IN ALL PRODUCTS.

SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...AND ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH COURSE OF THE DAY. SO...INCREASED POP CHANCES TO DEFINITE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA.

THERE COULD BE A SHORT LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER THE CURRENT
STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND A MID-LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SREF MODEL SHOWS
BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

MAV STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE.
NO CHANGES MADE TO TODAY/S HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THEN ON CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

12Z ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
TREND TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FASTER SOLUTION.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. EXPECT
A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
GO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS. THE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN RETURNS
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH ALL THAT/S GOING
ON...WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH TIMING AND KEEP THE CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
SO LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FEW CHANGES TO HPC WITH MAIN MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT.

THIS MEANS RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT FALLING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THEN DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH CHANCE STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST.

HPC REALLY BROUGHT UP THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AFTER THE
WARM FRONT PASSES. I AGREE BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THESE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS. ALSO WET GROUND SHOULD HAVE STRONG
EFFECT ON DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE FIRST PARTS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY
ON THURSDAY MORNING.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT A 40 KNT
LLJ APPROACHING OVER THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. PRECISE TIMING
IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME THUS WILL PAINT A WINDOW OF VCTS
MAINLY DURING AFTER 20Z THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. LATER ISSUANCES SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON TIMING...BUT FOR NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST WINDOW BASED UPON THE RAPID REFRESH...DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEL SUGGESTED LLJ INTERACTION.

AS THE LOW REACHES CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...EXTENSIVE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW EXTENSIVE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-068>072-261415-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHER THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ067-261415-
KNOX-
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL
BE POSSIBLE. OTHER THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

TDUD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1103 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 AM     HAIL             5 SE ATTICA             40.24N 87.18W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       FOUNTAIN           IN   PUBLIC

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1110 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             5 SE LAFAYETTE          40.36N 86.80W
05/25/2011  E0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   PUBLIC

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1113 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     HAIL             5 SW DELPHI             40.53N 86.74W
05/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1125 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW LAFAYETTE          40.45N 86.92W
05/25/2011  M39 MPH          TIPPECANOE         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED WIND AT HARRISON HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1127 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     HAIL             5 N FRANKFORT           40.35N 86.51W
05/25/2011  E0.25 INCH       CLINTON            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1140 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             4 NE DELPHI             40.63N 86.62W
05/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       CARROLL            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ABAKER