Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
535 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT INTO TONIGHT SINCE MOST AREAS ARE STILL UNDER WATER
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY AT ALL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY...AND THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /EARLY MORNING AND TODAY/...

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS COVERED WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2
INCH RANGE...BUT RAIN WILL BE RATHER HEAVY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SO...ANTICIPATE TOTALS NEAR 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 3
INCHES BY THE TIME IT ALL ENDS. AREAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
RANDOLPH...HENRY...AND DELAWARE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT THESE PLACES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR FLOOD
STAGE.

CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR MAX WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S. THESE NUMBERS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH MID
MORNING...AND WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA. HAD TO USE LAV TEMPERATURES
TO BETTER PINPOINT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG ALL DAY OUT OF THE WEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A DUSTING OF SNOW AT BEST WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA BY
SUN 12Z...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND IT. AS A
RESULT...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE
COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S
TOMORROW AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO WENT WITH
A BLEND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST
AREA FALLS INTO WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM. TRENDED A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BUMPED THIS UP TO CHANCE
OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTED AT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY. EVEN MUCAPES AREN/T
SHOWING MUCH BUT WITH THOSE DYNAMICS THINK THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING AN END TO
THE THUNDER CHANCES AND BY THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. MODELS WERE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND LESSER THEREAFTER BUT FELT HPC
BLEND OF ECM AND GFS ENSEMBLES HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAFS/...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
DIMINISH OVER THE TAF SITES BY 051400Z OR SO AS BETTER LIFT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF KLAF BY ISSUANCE TIME...WITH FRONT CLEARING
KIND/KBMG BY 051500-051600Z. WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 320-350 HEADINGS AT AND
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT...AND FOR A PERIOD
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...COUPLED WITH DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE THE IFR
CEILINGS LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FROM ABOUT MIDDAY ON STARTING
IN THE KLAF AREA AND WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WORST
FLOODING WILL OCCUR AFTER RAIN HAS ENDED. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING...AND ALREADY FLOODED RIVERS WILL
ONLY WORSEN. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES IN LOCALIZED
AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....CP/TDUD
AVIATION...JAS
HYDROLOGY...TDUD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

INZ021-030-031-036>038-040>042-045-046-048-049-055-057-062-063-
065-072-060930-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-
RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-HANCOCK-HENRY-JOHNSON-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-
DECATUR-JENNINGS-
430 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS...IN ADDITION TO
CAUSING RIVERS TO RISE.

IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IF AT ALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MORE RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ028-029-035-039-043-044-047-051>054-056-060-061-064-067>071-
060930-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-HAMILTON-VERMILLION-PARKE-MARION-VIGO-
CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-GREENE-BARTHOLOMEW-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
430 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS...IN ADDITION TO
CAUSING RIVERS TO RISE.

IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IF AT ALL.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MORE RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

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