Areal Flood Warning 40, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
855 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.UPDATE...
THE MESO DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.MESO UPDATE...
MAIN CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM VINCENNES TO BEDFORD TO NEAR NORTH VERNON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED OVER INDIANA AT THIS TIME. SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BEST
TORNADIC POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TERRE HAUTE TO GREENSBURG
LINE...CLOSEST TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHEAR WISE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL...SUGGESTING AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A WARM FRONT TO THE
OUR NORTH. LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE WARM FRONT WILL PULL AWAY
LEAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SPC HAS EXTENDED WATCH TIL 06Z AS SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH. ALSO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 08Z AS
PORTIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
HEAVY RAINFALL.    LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VINCENNES TO
GREENSBURG AND DAYTON.  THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ESPECIALLY
BAD ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF LOW AT 12Z.
DONT FEEL I CAN OUT PERFORM MOS...WHICH IS CLOSE...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN PROBLEM POPS

MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH STACKED SYSTEM OVER AREA INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS WETTER MET.

FORECAST LOWER 60S BY DAWN. GIVEN THAT TOUGH TIME WITH NEAR 70
THURSDAY WITH A WET FORECAST. WILL DROP MOS ABOUT A CATEGORY.
GOING UP A CATEGORY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH NEARBY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BLOCK COOLING.

FOR FRIDAY LIKE THE WARMER MAV. BOTH MODELS AGREE WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH DRY AIR WORK IN FOR SOME SUN. IN MAY THAT OUGHT GET US AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 70. SINCE LIKE WARMER MAV FRIDAY...WILL USE WARMER
MAV FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FEW CHANGES TO HPC WITH MAIN MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT.

THIS MEANS RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT FALLING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THEN DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH CHANCE STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST.

HPC REALLY BROUGHT UP THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AFTER THE
WARM FRONT PASSES. I AGREE BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THESE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS. ALSO WET GROUND SHOULD HAVE STRONG
EFFECT ON DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS/...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD
TO AT LEAST 02Z OVER WESTERN SECTIONS TO 04Z-05Z KIND AND KBMG.
SURFACE OBS SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSHOWER EXPECTED REST OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS MOVE
DRY SLOT INTO OUR REGION.  MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATES
LOWER LEVEL WILL BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT INDICATING MOSTLY
MVFR CEILINGS.  I WOULD NOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS AT KLAF...BUT MVFR
APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.  CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FROM KIND AND KHUF AND NORTHWARD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 400 AM EDT...
ZONES INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-
&&

MESO UPDATE...JAS
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK/JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1118 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON                 40.05N 86.47W
05/25/2011                   BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            SR 39 AND SR 32. PLY WOOD ON STREET. ROOF OFF APARTMENT
            BUILDING.

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1120 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     TSTM WND GST     ARCADIA                 40.17N 86.02W
05/25/2011  E60 MPH          HAMILTON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AHOMANN

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