Areal Flood Warning 36, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND HYDROLOGY SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ALONG A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. MID WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN FOR THE WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

BULK OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...REMOVING ANY MENTION OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPPED POPS BACK INTO LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE.

EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH A FEW COUNTIES. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

OTHERWISE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER ON IF CLOUDS DO
NOT THIN A LITTLE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER
RIDGING MOVING IN BY WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GET A
BETTER PUSH SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEST LIFT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AND TAPER POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS BETTER LIFT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONVECTIVE
THREAT APPEARS LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO
WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE TOO WARM. WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. GFS MOS LOWS DURING THE PERIOD LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. WILL STICK CLOSER TO HPC/ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABILITY.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LOW POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING
AROUND YET...BUT MANY OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY. THUS HAVE ADDED POPS TO SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THEN
TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS/...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND AT BMG THROUGH THE PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. MODELS WERE SHOWING NO INSTABILITY...SO LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCUATE BUT MOSTLY BE MVFR EARLY
AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MVFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE
RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. LAF...HOWEVER...WILL MOSTLY BE VFR AND
SOLID RAIN SHIELD MAY BE SOUTHEAST OF THERE...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE
VCSH EARLY AND TONIGHT THERE.

WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONANT AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATER TODAY AND LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HAVE ADDED 3 COUNTIES TO THE FLOOD WATCH BASED ON THE RAIN THAT
HAS FALLEN ALREADY AND THAT CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR FLOOD
STAGE THERE. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURING IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA...SO WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF IT ALONE. BULK OF RAIN THAT WILL
FALL TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE IN THESE SAME AREAS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ055>057-060>065-
067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

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