Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1137 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EITHER. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MID WEEK. FURTHER OUT...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY LITTLE TWEAKS MADE. HAVE ADDED
SOME TIMING TO DECREASE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN SOME
AREAS LIKE THE NORTHWEST WHERE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN. THEN RAMP THINGS UP IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND
3-4Z BASED ON THE HRRR OUTPUT. ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS. NOTE THAT LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE STILL CONSIDERED A THREAT...JUST NOT AS
PREDOMINANT AS THE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. TORNADO THREAT
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BASED ON
HIGHER SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES THERE INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH WITH SATELLITE
DERIVED PWATS OVER AN INCH AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS HIGH
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...THE MAIN FOCUS OF TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
EURO/NAM/GFS HAVE ALL COME INTO AGREEMENT. HIGHLIGHTED THE MON
06-12Z TIME FRAME AS THE BEST PERIOD FOR SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 70 KTS MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG VORT MAX. LATEST MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING A TIGHT AXIS OF MOISTURE ORIENTED ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM MON 06-12Z...AND WARM
AIR IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO UPPER 50S OVER THE
CENTRAL PART...AND LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE 100 PLUS KT UPPER LEVEL
JET OF WHICH CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER LEFT EXIT REGION. DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND ML CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.

PWAT VALUES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25 INCHES DURING DURATION
OF EVENT. SO...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COUPLED WITH RECENT SNOWMELT
WILL RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION.

TEMPS...TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH TONIGHT/S LOWS
AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MON 15Z...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT CUTS OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY AROUND MON 18Z. SO...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN PAST THE NOON HOUR. BEYOND
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE CALM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...KEPT TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA FOR TOMORROW...AND SLOWLY STARTED DROPPING THEM
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...ERRED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT.  BEYOND THAT...WENT WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT CALM AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.  HOWEVER...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY.

HPC GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO
STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES.  WILL START OUT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT ENDS QUICKLY BY SATURDAY
EVENING...CUTTING OFF PRECIP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...WILL STAY WITH COOLER HPC TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DO NOT
THINK AIR WILL RECOVER THAT QUICKLY FROM MONDAY/TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
PLUS...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CONTRIBUTING TO
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THURSDAY...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.  FRIDAY...WENT WITH GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORN...DEPENDENT ON WHEN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE LOW.  LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT.  SATURDAY...WENT WITH GUIDANCE...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...ERRED ON COOLER SIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 280600Z TAFS/...

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ROUTES WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 10Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND LOCAL HAIL.

AROUND 10Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG BUT CEILINGS CONTINUING IFR. BY 18Z DRY
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES BUT CEILINGS STILL MVFR. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

EXCEPT FOR THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
10 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWEST
AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. WINDS CONTINUING
NORTHWEST ALL DAY...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-031-036>042-
044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028-029-035-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1043 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-010345-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1043 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOWLAND FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG MANY RIVERS. CHECK THE LATEST
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
916 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

INZ030-035>037-039-044>046-280245-
BOONE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-HAMILTON-HENDRICKS-MONTGOMERY-PARKE-PUTNAM-
916 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

AT 912 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF NEWPORT TO
12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DANVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WALLACE AND SHADES STATE PARK AROUND 920 PM EST...
  ADVANCE AROUND 925 PM EST...
  WHITESTOWN AND CRAWFORDSVILLE AROUND 930 PM EST...
  ULEN AND THORNTOWN AROUND 935 PM EST...
  MORSE RESERVOIR AND SHERIDAN AROUND 945 PM EST...

SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE OF STORMS.
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

MRD/JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             1 N JAMESTOWN           39.94N 86.63W
02/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0940 PM     HAIL             2 NW THORNTOWN          40.15N 86.64W
02/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZE HAIL ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN COLFAX AND THORNTOWN

&&

CP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             ROCKVILLE               39.77N 87.23W
02/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       PARKE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS

&&

CP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

INZ030-036-037-044>046-280515-
BOONE-CLINTON-HENDRICKS-MONTGOMERY-PARKE-PUTNAM-
1146 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN
HENDRICKS...EASTERN PARKE...BOONE...SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN
CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EST...

AT 1144 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKVILLE...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LADOGA AROUND 1155 PM EST...
NEW ROSS...ADVANCE AND JAMESTOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT EST...
LEBANON...ULEN AND WHITESTOWN AROUND 1210 AM EST...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 8636 3996 8625 3972 8712 3995 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 247DEG 64KT 3988 8697

MRD/JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1229 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CASTLETON               39.90N 86.05W
02/28/2011  E1.90 INCH       MARION             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STANDING WATER ALL OVER THE PLACE.

&&

JH