Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SNOW BY THURSDAY. THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON RAIN EVENT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST
PART SO TOOK A BLEND.

850MB JET OVER 50KT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING
MOISTURE WITH IT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL PRODUCE RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...SO WENT 100
POPS ALL AREAS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BETTER BET. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE AMOUNTS
COULD STILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES AND PROLONG EXISTING
FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE THE WARMER OF THE
MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING SNOW
ON THURSDAY. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH MOST
FEATURES...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS 850
JET MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. THUS WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS EAST AND
LIKELY WEST IN THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL LOWER POPS IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT GOES BY.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH.

WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE FRONT NOT
MOVING THROUGH TIL AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SOME IN THE WEST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. A TROWAL WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND MOS USUALLY DOESN/T DO AS WELL WITH POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROWALS. THUS WENT HIGHER THAN MOS FOR POPS...BUT
STILL IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL LOOK LIKE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK WITH
SNOW ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOME RAIN MIXES IN WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES AROUND 40. WILL KEEP
RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS THURSDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR EARLY ON...THEN DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PER HPC...THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS SLOWER SOLUTION.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...WENT AHEAD AND STUCK CLOSER TO
CONTINUITY WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS. OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

THE SYSTEM MOVING IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE CENTERED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THUS WENT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DID ADD THESE TO FRIDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AS IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A BIT FASTER.

STICKING TO CONTINUITY MEANS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN COOLER BUT SHOULD STILL BE
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 090000Z TAFS/...

LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AFTER 090600Z WHEN STRONGER LIFT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. POCKETS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL TONIGHT AS MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES. EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM OVER
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER
ABOUT 090900Z.

CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY SNEAK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF AREAS AFTER 090900Z FOR A
LOW THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
090300Z...WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING 40-55KTS IN THE 030-050 LAYER.
THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME SURFACE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS MIXED UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

INZ021-030-031-036>042-045-046-048-049-052-055>057-062-063-065-
072-092015-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY-JOHNSON-
SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
307 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AND CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ028-029-035-043-044-047-051-053-054-060-061-064-067>071-092015-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-MARION-VIGO-OWEN-
MORGAN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-BARTHOLOMEW-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-
JACKSON-
307 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS AND SOME STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS AND SOME STREAMS. SEE
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)